AU - Ballarat - Race 4

Thoroughbred

4 Runners

16.2f

Hurdle

Turf

HEAVY 9

70.7K

VIEW

Verdict

Disappointing to only get a field of four and hard to go past THE CUNNING FOX (1) despite spotting weight to all rivals. He's got 153lbs because he's already competed with distinction at this level, something the other runners can't boast. Returned to winning form last start, thumping the horse who went on to win the Grand National Hurdle. Looks his race to lose. BITCOIN (2) is the roughie of the race, but he might be ready to show something. Showed promise over the jumps last year and hasn't seen a hurdle race yet this year and there's not a lot left for him after this, so suspect it's been a late-season target. Plenty of merit to his flat run last start when not beaten far. UNTETHERED (3) has found top form late in the season and while this is a step up on the past couple, his confidence is sky high. FLASHLIGHT (4) started $1.50 last week against Untethered and was beaten 7 lengths, so has ground to make up on him, but that might have topped him off for this.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Useful type. Freshened for 35 days. Last run ran on from midfield and won by 7 len Hamilton Hdle-Swp on July 12 over 2 ¹/16m on heavy track defeating Andy Win with 153lbs at $2.60 in a hurdle. Start before ran last at Sandown-Lakeside Bm70 on July 8 over 1 5/16m, on a wet track, 6 len behind Second Nature carrying 123lbs at $17. Found his best form now. All set to continue the fine recent jumping form. 1st Pick 1 The Cunning Fox Jockey: Tom Ryan Trainer: Patrick Payne J: Tom Ryan T: Patrick Payne	329	-	-	-	58%	8/11
Analysis Useful type. Freshened for 35 days. Last run ran on from midfield and won by 7 len Hamilton Hdle-Swp on July 12 over 2 ¹/16m on heavy track defeating Andy Win with 153lbs at $2.60 in a hurdle. Start before ran last at Sandown-Lakeside Bm70 on July 8 over 1 5/16m, on a wet track, 6 len behind Second Nature carrying 123lbs at $17. Found his best form now. All set to continue the fine recent jumping form.
2	Third-up today and placed third-up previously. First-up ran last at this track Bm66 on June 12 over 1 ¼m, on heavy track, 20 len behind Amleto with 131lbs at $31. Last start finished fifth of 10 runners at Sandown-Hillside 0 - 66 on July 22 over 1 ½m, on slow going 3 len behind Shultzy with 131lbs at $61. Definite winning chance. Back to the jumps for the first time this prep and showed promise last time in. 2nd Pick 2 Bitcoin Jockey: Will Gordon Trainer: Jessica Pateman J: Will Gordon T: Jessica Pateman	118	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Third-up today and placed third-up previously. First-up ran last at this track Bm66 on June 12 over 1 ¼m, on heavy track, 20 len behind Amleto with 131lbs at $31. Last start finished fifth of 10 runners at Sandown-Hillside 0 - 66 on July 22 over 1 ½m, on slow going 3 len behind Shultzy with 131lbs at $61. Definite winning chance. Back to the jumps for the first time this prep and showed promise last time in.
3	Chasing a hat-trick. Last start raced just off the speed and boxed on, won by 0.8 len Casterton Hdle on August 9 over 2m on rain affected going defeating Hula Beat with 155lbs at $2.80 in a jumps. Start to post a big 4 len win. Hamilton Mdn Hdle-Sw on July 12 over 2m in the wet defeating Gripping with 153lbs at $6 in a hurdle. This tougher than past couple, but confidence is high. 3rd Pick 3 Untethered Jockey: Darryl Horner Jnr Trainer: Patrick Kearney J: Darryl Horner Jnr T: Patrick Kearney	149	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Chasing a hat-trick. Last start raced just off the speed and boxed on, won by 0.8 len Casterton Hdle on August 9 over 2m on rain affected going defeating Hula Beat with 155lbs at $2.80 in a jumps. Start to post a big 4 len win. Hamilton Mdn Hdle-Sw on July 12 over 2m in the wet defeating Gripping with 153lbs at $6 in a hurdle. This tougher than past couple, but confidence is high.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Minus Pool

A pari-mutuel pool – typically a show pool - where one horse is so heavily bet that after deductions there is not enough money left to cover the prescribed minimum on each bet.

State-Bred

A horse bred in a particular state and thus eligible to race in restricted state-bred races. These can be anything from maiden races to stakes events.

Track Bias

The term used to identify which parts of the track or running styles are producing more winners.