NZ - New Plymouth - Race 4

Thoroughbred

10 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

HEAVY 10

23.4K

VIEW

Verdict

CIRCUS DANCER (2) resumes from a spell after being good enough to be stakes placed as a 3YO last season. She likes some cut in the ground, comes to hand quickly, and we think she can make a winning return to the track. OUR AKASHINGA (5) capped off some strong form with a solid last start win as the favourite at Otaki just over 5 weeks ago. She is down in weight with the rise in class, and she can measure up again. BRUTIFUL LASS (9) took her time to win a maiden, and then doubled the dose immediately at Hastings a fortnight ago. The hat-trick beckons. OH MAIMAI (8) is a very promising mare resuming from a spell on her home track, and she will be ready to rumble.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
2	Mare returning from a spell and has won previously when first up. Finished off last preparation third of 9 at Wanganui May 30 over 6 ¾f, soft track, 4 len behind Shameless Star with 125lbs at $2.50. When resuming last campaign second last of 9 at Ellerslie in the G3 King's Plate March 7 over 6f, 23 len behind Sweynesday carrying 115lbs at $37. Looks a key runner. 1st Pick 2 Circus Dancer Jockey: Leah Hemi Trainer: Cody Cole J: Leah Hemi T: Cody Cole	72	-	-	-	23%	7/2
Analysis Mare returning from a spell and has won previously when first up. Finished off last preparation third of 9 at Wanganui May 30 over 6 ¾f, soft track, 4 len behind Shameless Star with 125lbs at $2.50. When resuming last campaign second last of 9 at Ellerslie in the G3 King's Plate March 7 over 6f, 23 len behind Sweynesday carrying 115lbs at $37. Looks a key runner.
6	Racing second-up today. Last start won by a long-neck at Taupo on August 16 over 6f in heavy going defeating Los Santos with 130lbs at $4.30. At only start last preparation ran second last of 7 at Ellerslie on January 11 over 7 ½f, 6 len behind Chilling Out with 126lbs at $13.10. Will be one of the hardest to beat. 2nd Pick 6 Empirical Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Steven Ramsay & Julia Ritchie J: Non Runner T: Steven Ramsay & Julia Ritchie	69	-	-	-	13%	Scratched
Analysis Racing second-up today. Last start won by a long-neck at Taupo on August 16 over 6f in heavy going defeating Los Santos with 130lbs at $4.30. At only start last preparation ran second last of 7 at Ellerslie on January 11 over 7 ½f, 6 len behind Chilling Out with 126lbs at $13.10. Will be one of the hardest to beat.
5	Racing well recently. Comes off a 37 day let-up. At the latest run favourite, won by 0.6 len at Otaki on July 30 over 6f on a heavy track defeating Luminance carrying 129lbs at $3.20. The start before that 2nd of 13 at Waverley on July 4 over 6f, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind Great Escape with 126lbs at $5.50. Well placed to take this out. 3rd Pick 5 Our Akashinga Jockey: Toni Davies Trainer: Kevin & Stephen Gray J: Toni Davies T: Kevin & Stephen Gray	98	-	-	-	12%	8/1
Analysis Racing well recently. Comes off a 37 day let-up. At the latest run favourite, won by 0.6 len at Otaki on July 30 over 6f on a heavy track defeating Luminance carrying 129lbs at $3.20. The start before that 2nd of 13 at Waverley on July 4 over 6f, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind Great Escape with 126lbs at $5.50. Well placed to take this out.

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