JP - Nagoya - Race 9

Thoroughbred

10 Runners

7.5f

Unknown

Dirt

9.7K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

COSMO BELL TREE (5) sets the standard after a narrow second at Nagoya when beaten a neck in 3yo+ B3 company, and her broader record at this track and distance gives that run a solid foundation. PERSONAL RECORD (8) has the strongest recent winning profile, having scored by a length and a half two starts ago before finishing fourth as a prohibitive odds-on favourite over 1 ¹/16m, the return to 7 ½f looks the key to his response. VAL DE GRACE (6) has to rebound from an eighth in 3yo+ B1 grade, but her prior win over Hiogi and strong Nagoya 7 ½f statistics keep her right in the race. PAR (9) is harder to recommend as a winner after two well-beaten B1 runs, though she has been competitive enough over the past year to hold minor-money claims if the main trio underperform.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
5	Resumed with a strong second at Nagoya in 3yo+ B3 company, looming up and fighting on when beaten a neck by Miya Iguazu near the top of an open market. The run prior was over 4f in B1 grade, where she picked up nicely from well back. Her two wins and nine placings from 20 at this track and distance read well, and second-up she has the right profile to take beating. 1st Pick 5 Cosmo Bell Tree Jockey: Hiroshi Ohara Trainer: Katsuyuki Imazu J: Hiroshi Ohara T: Katsuyuki Imazu	92	-	-	-	12%	8/1
Analysis Resumed with a strong second at Nagoya in 3yo+ B3 company, looming up and fighting on when beaten a neck by Miya Iguazu near the top of an open market. The run prior was over 4f in B1 grade, where she picked up nicely from well back. Her two wins and nine placings from 20 at this track and distance read well, and second-up she has the right profile to take beating.
8	Was beaten just under two lengths when fourth over 1 ¹/16m at Nagoya last start, but the defeat came as a prohibitive odds-on favourite and he did not finish it off as expected. Two starts ago he beat Yamakatsu Raiko by a length and a half in 3yo+ B6 grade. His three wins and two placings from eight at this track and distance make the return to 7 ½f a major asset. 2nd Pick 8 Personal Record Jockey: Hiroki Murakami Trainer: Satoru Setoguchi J: Hiroki Murakami T: Satoru Setoguchi	156	-	-	-	74%	4/11
Analysis Was beaten just under two lengths when fourth over 1 ¹/16m at Nagoya last start, but the defeat came as a prohibitive odds-on favourite and he did not finish it off as expected. Two starts ago he beat Yamakatsu Raiko by a length and a half in 3yo+ B6 grade. His three wins and two placings from eight at this track and distance make the return to 7 ½f a major asset.
6	Failed to fire when eighth over 1 ¹/16m in 3yo+ B1 grade last start, beaten eight and a half lengths and unwanted in the market. Her previous win in 3yo+ B5 company was much better, scoring narrowly from Hiogi at Nagoya. Back to 7 ½f suits on record, with two wins and eight placings from 16 here at the trip, so she can rebound if last start proves an off day. 3rd Pick 6 Val De Grace Jockey: Aoi Kinomae Trainer: Isao Nishikimi J: Aoi Kinomae T: Isao Nishikimi	102	-	-	-	4%	25/1
Analysis Failed to fire when eighth over 1 ¹/16m in 3yo+ B1 grade last start, beaten eight and a half lengths and unwanted in the market. Her previous win in 3yo+ B5 company was much better, scoring narrowly from Hiogi at Nagoya. Back to 7 ½f suits on record, with two wins and eight placings from 16 here at the trip, so she can rebound if last start proves an off day.

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