JP - Nagoya - Race 7

Thoroughbred

12 Runners

7.5f

Unknown

Dirt

6.5K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

ROCK A HULA DANCER (10) brings the most reliable recent profile, with placings at all four runs in the past 12 months and a nose defeat two starts back before another third behind Stay Lucky. The reservation is obvious: he has placed seven times from nine tries at Nagoya over 7 ½f without winning, so he is solid rather than bombproof. VIVIEN ONE (1) is the main danger after charging into second behind Treasure Beat, and the class drop into C8 helps her case, though her overall maiden record keeps the price in check. SUN LUNA (11) has produced two sound C1 efforts, including a third beaten just over a length, and appeals as the sharper value chance if she converts that closing work. SMART ERABLE (6) was a big-odds second last start and has a recent edge over Rock A Hula Dancer, but still needs to prove that was not simply a peak effort.

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Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
10	Continued his consistent run when third to Stay Lucky in a 3yo+ C1 at Nagoya, beaten five and a half lengths after being prominent but unable to quicken. Two back he was nailed late by Meisho Miss Ichi, beaten a nose as an odds-on favourite. His seven placings from nine at this track and distance show the suitability, though the lack of a win here is the lingering query. 1st Pick 10 Rock A Hula Dancer Jockey: Daimyo Otshata Trainer: Hiroyuki Imazu J: Daimyo Otshata T: Hiroyuki Imazu	195	-	-	-	29%	5/2
Analysis Continued his consistent run when third to Stay Lucky in a 3yo+ C1 at Nagoya, beaten five and a half lengths after being prominent but unable to quicken. Two back he was nailed late by Meisho Miss Ichi, beaten a nose as an odds-on favourite. His seven placings from nine at this track and distance show the suitability, though the lack of a win here is the lingering query.
1	Finished strongly from what looked an awkward position when second to Treasure Beat in a 3yo+ C1 over 7 ½f at Nagoya, beaten three lengths at long odds. She had been fourth to Bio Max the run prior after settling rearward, so the pattern is solid enough. Still winless from 37 starts, but the class drop and three placings from nine at this track and distance make her a serious winning player if she repeats the latest finish. 2nd Pick 1 Vivien One Jockey: Abe Mototsugu Trainer: Manabu Kurachi J: Abe Mototsugu T: Manabu Kurachi	116	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Finished strongly from what looked an awkward position when second to Treasure Beat in a 3yo+ C1 over 7 ½f at Nagoya, beaten three lengths at long odds. She had been fourth to Bio Max the run prior after settling rearward, so the pattern is solid enough. Still winless from 37 starts, but the class drop and three placings from nine at this track and distance make her a serious winning player if she repeats the latest finish.
11	Worked home in eye-catching style for fourth behind Nishiki Vivravivre at Nagoya, beaten four and a half lengths, after a third to Meisho Miss Ichi when beaten just over a length at big odds. She did finish behind Rock A Hula Dancer two starts ago, but the recent C1 form reads well enough for this. Still a maiden from 29 starts, so she must turn honest efforts into a sharper finish. 3rd Pick 11 Sun Luna Jockey: Katsuki Niwa Trainer: Isao Nishikimi J: Katsuki Niwa T: Isao Nishikimi	74	-	-	-	13%	7/1
Analysis Worked home in eye-catching style for fourth behind Nishiki Vivravivre at Nagoya, beaten four and a half lengths, after a third to Meisho Miss Ichi when beaten just over a length at big odds. She did finish behind Rock A Hula Dancer two starts ago, but the recent C1 form reads well enough for this. Still a maiden from 29 starts, so she must turn honest efforts into a sharper finish.

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