JP - Nagoya - Race 10

Thoroughbred

11 Runners

8.4f

Unknown

Dirt

11.4K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

COSMO NASHVILLE (4) sets the standard off a comfortable 3yo+ B4 win over 7f at Nagoya, having also placed in 3yo+ B6 grade the start prior. His Nagoya record is a major anchor and the only real query is stretching to 1 ¹/16m, where the evidence is thinner. T O LIPPMANN (9) has the sharper overall strike rate, comes through a favourite's win over 7 ½f and is closely matched on current form, though this is his first try at the distance. INGENIOUS (2) is the seasoned threat: recent placings at 7f and 4 ?f show he is holding form, and his track-and-trip record keeps him right in the contest. BELLEZA FIN (1) is next best after missing by a length here last time, she has proven Nagoya 1 ¹/16m form, but the run prior was plain enough to keep her below the main pair.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
4	Made full use of his forward style to win a 3yo+ B4 over 7f here last start, beating Kismet by a length and a half as the odds-on favourite. Before that he was second to Stapes Shoma in a 3yo+ B6 over 7 ½f, beaten three lengths. His Nagoya record is excellent, with four wins and nine places from 15 starts, and the only meaningful test is stretching to 1 ¹/16m. If he sees it out, he is the one they have to beat. 1st Pick 4 Cosmo Nashville Jockey: Takahiro Imai Trainer: Uto Hideki J: Takahiro Imai T: Uto Hideki	155	-	-	-	48%	11/10
Analysis Made full use of his forward style to win a 3yo+ B4 over 7f here last start, beating Kismet by a length and a half as the odds-on favourite. Before that he was second to Stapes Shoma in a 3yo+ B6 over 7 ½f, beaten three lengths. His Nagoya record is excellent, with four wins and nine places from 15 starts, and the only meaningful test is stretching to 1 ¹/16m. If he sees it out, he is the one they have to beat.
9	Tracked the speed and won a 3yo+ B4 over 7 ½f here last start, beating Over Drive by half a length as favourite. Two back he was third to Val De Grace in a 3yo+ B5, beaten just under two lengths, so the form is trending the right way. His broader profile is strong, with six wins from 17 starts and three Nagoya wins from eight. First time at 1 ¹/16m is the main query, but he brings a winning platform. 2nd Pick 9 T O Lippmann Jockey: Junki Mochizuki Trainer: Akiko Okita J: Junki Mochizuki T: Akiko Okita	129	-	-	-	27%	11/4
Analysis Tracked the speed and won a 3yo+ B4 over 7 ½f here last start, beating Over Drive by half a length as favourite. Two back he was third to Val De Grace in a 3yo+ B5, beaten just under two lengths, so the form is trending the right way. His broader profile is strong, with six wins from 17 starts and three Nagoya wins from eight. First time at 1 ¹/16m is the main query, but he brings a winning platform.
2	Worked home evenly for third over 7f here last start, beaten just under three lengths behind Shuffle Girl, and that followed a long-odds second in a 3yo+ B3 over 4f when he got busy late from well back. The rise to 1 ¹/16m brings him onto a known course-and-distance profile, with two wins and three places from 23 tries. He will need to produce his finish at the right time, but the recent form is solid enough to make him a serious player. 3rd Pick 2 Ingenious Jockey: Masaaki Ohata Trainer: Koichi Chibe J: Masaaki Ohata T: Koichi Chibe	88	-	-	-	2%	50/1
Analysis Worked home evenly for third over 7f here last start, beaten just under three lengths behind Shuffle Girl, and that followed a long-odds second in a 3yo+ B3 over 4f when he got busy late from well back. The rise to 1 ¹/16m brings him onto a known course-and-distance profile, with two wins and three places from 23 tries. He will need to produce his finish at the right time, but the recent form is solid enough to make him a serious player.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Bug

An apprentice jockey.

Handicap

A race where a handicapper has assigned weights to be carried by all runners on the basis of their past racing efforts.

Bobble/Stumble

A slip or a duck from a horse trying to leave the starting gates, often caused by the surface giving way under the feet. This can range from a mild misstep to a stumble down to their knees.