NZ - Matamata - Race 8

Thoroughbred

15 Runners

9.9f

Benchmark

Turf

HEAVY 8

10.8K

VIEW

Verdict

SWEET BUT PSYCHO (5) has all the form on the board, and was less than a length from the winner in a good race at Te Rapa last time out when finishing second as the favourite. Dropping back from 1 ½m to 1 5/16m will do her no harm, and no one would begrudge her a winning turn. ARJAY'S FLIGHT (7) was very disappointing as a warm favourite on the Cambridge poly track last week, and the fact that he is backing up so quickly would suggest that nothing is amiss with the gelding. Returning to a turf surface is what we like, and he deserve one more chance. Follow your money. EMPRESSIVE (10) has been building her fitness levels, and stepping up to 1 ¼m for the first time this prep is the key. Each way value. JACK IN THE BOX (1) has seen his form taper off after his Arawa Park win at the start of July, but he is better than that, and if the track is heavy, then don't underestimate his top 4 claims. MUSCOVADO (2) did not fire in a tougher field at Ellerslie last start, but he is right in this.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
5	Racing well recently. Most recently made ground from midfield, 2nd of 15 at Te Rapa on August 22 over 1 ½m, slow going 0.8 len behind With Grace with 128lbs at $3.80. The start before that 2nd of 14 at Ruakaka on August 1 over 1 5/16m, on a slow track, 1.1 len behind With Grace with 130lbs at $3.50. One of the hardest to beat here. 1st Pick 5 Sweet But Psycho Jockey: Michael Mcnab Trainer: Lance O'sullivan & Andrew Scott J: Michael Mcnab T: Lance O'sullivan & Andrew Scott	129	-	-	-	34%	2/1
Analysis Racing well recently. Most recently made ground from midfield, 2nd of 15 at Te Rapa on August 22 over 1 ½m, slow going 0.8 len behind With Grace with 128lbs at $3.80. The start before that 2nd of 14 at Ruakaka on August 1 over 1 5/16m, on a slow track, 1.1 len behind With Grace with 130lbs at $3.50. One of the hardest to beat here.
7	At the latest run 4th of 7 at Cambridge Synthetic on September 9 over 1 ¼m, 2.5 len behind Tarzador carrying 120lbs at $2.20. Before that raced on the pace before fading ran last of 15 at Te Rapa on August 22 over 1 ½m, slow going 14 len behind With Grace carrying 130lbs at $4.80. Has ability and can run a forward race. 2nd Pick 7 Arjay's Flight Jockey: Elen Nicholas Trainer: Shaun Phelan J: Elen Nicholas T: Shaun Phelan	143	-	-	-	14%	13/2
Analysis At the latest run 4th of 7 at Cambridge Synthetic on September 9 over 1 ¼m, 2.5 len behind Tarzador carrying 120lbs at $2.20. Before that raced on the pace before fading ran last of 15 at Te Rapa on August 22 over 1 ½m, slow going 14 len behind With Grace carrying 130lbs at $4.80. Has ability and can run a forward race.
10	Comes here off a 31-day let-up. Last start ran second last of 8 at Taupo on August 16 over 1m, on rain affected going, 9 len behind Rosina with 125lbs at $5.10. The run before that 6th of 14 at Avondale on July 15 over 1m, on a wet track, 4 len behind Final Reason with 125lbs at $15.10. Tough to beat if near her best. 3rd Pick 10 Empressive Jockey: Hayley Hassman Trainer: Benjamin King J: Hayley Hassman T: Benjamin King	89	-	-	-	8%	12/1
Analysis Comes here off a 31-day let-up. Last start ran second last of 8 at Taupo on August 16 over 1m, on rain affected going, 9 len behind Rosina with 125lbs at $5.10. The run before that 6th of 14 at Avondale on July 15 over 1m, on a wet track, 4 len behind Final Reason with 125lbs at $15.10. Tough to beat if near her best.

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