AU - Illawarra Grange - Race 8

Thoroughbred

10 Runners

Class 1

Turf

SOFT 5

28.8K

VIEW

Verdict

GOOD'N'YOU (7) has to be close to a victory now. He sat just off them at Newcastle three weeks ago and only just missed. Finds a much softer gate this time. The stable is having a nice trot and bringing him back in trip could see more success. MARCHON (2) came to this course before a break and missed by a nose. If he can just get some fortune early, he could be the strongest one late. CAPTIVATING TYCOON (8) won't be contesting the lead in this but can find the line if last effort is anything to go by. Look for improvement. HARRY'S HALO (5) had two trials to be ready. Definitely one to watch the betting on. PORTICO (6) will be at peak fitness now. The added furlong only looks to be positive into this.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
7	Last start ran on from midfield, 2nd of 10 in a Cl1 at Beaumont (Newcastle) on October 26 over 6 ¾f, slow going 0.9 len behind Breakout with 133lbs at $2.90. The run before that from last on the turn 5th of 7 in a 3&4yo Bm64 at Randwick Kensington on October 7 over 6 ¼f, on a slow track, 2.75 len behind Punxsutawney Phil with 128lbs at $9.50. Not far away last time. Tough to beat. 1st Pick 7 Good'n'you Jockey: Lee Magorrian Trainer: Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou J: Lee Magorrian T: Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou	152	-	-	-	29%	5/2
Analysis Last start ran on from midfield, 2nd of 10 in a Cl1 at Beaumont (Newcastle) on October 26 over 6 ¾f, slow going 0.9 len behind Breakout with 133lbs at $2.90. The run before that from last on the turn 5th of 7 in a 3&4yo Bm64 at Randwick Kensington on October 7 over 6 ¼f, on a slow track, 2.75 len behind Punxsutawney Phil with 128lbs at $9.50. Not far away last time. Tough to beat.
2	Second-up. First-up after five months 4th of 7 in a Cg&E Cl1 at Wyong on October 29 over 6f, 1.75 len behind Senjutsu carrying 132lbs at $3. Previously second-up won by 1.2 len in a Mdn-Sw at Canberra on April 17 over 6 ½f on a rain affected track defeating Strike A Pose carrying 129lbs at $1.30. Strips fitter and is one of the leading chances. 2nd Pick 2 Marchon Jockey: Mitchell Bell Trainer: Annabel & Rob Archibald J: Mitchell Bell T: Annabel & Rob Archibald	150	-	-	-	25%	3/1
Analysis Second-up. First-up after five months 4th of 7 in a Cg&E Cl1 at Wyong on October 29 over 6f, 1.75 len behind Senjutsu carrying 132lbs at $3. Previously second-up won by 1.2 len in a Mdn-Sw at Canberra on April 17 over 6 ½f on a rain affected track defeating Strike A Pose carrying 129lbs at $1.30. Strips fitter and is one of the leading chances.
8	Second run back. First-up after four months made some head-way from midfield, 3rd of 14 in a Bm64 at Kembla Grange on October 24 over 6f, 2 len behind Miss Emma with 126lbs at $4.80. Previously second-up ran last of 9 in a Cg&E Bm64 at Newcastle on May 23 over 6 ¼f, on heavy track, 13 len behind Crop Duster carrying 129lbs at $9. Further improvement in store. 3rd Pick 8 Captivating Tycoon Jockey: Keagan Latham Trainer: Richard & Will Freedman J: Keagan Latham T: Richard & Will Freedman	130	-	-	-	19%	9/2
Analysis Second run back. First-up after four months made some head-way from midfield, 3rd of 14 in a Bm64 at Kembla Grange on October 24 over 6f, 2 len behind Miss Emma with 126lbs at $4.80. Previously second-up ran last of 9 in a Cg&E Bm64 at Newcastle on May 23 over 6 ¼f, on heavy track, 13 len behind Crop Duster carrying 129lbs at $9. Further improvement in store.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Bullet

A bullet, or bullet workout, is a workout that was clocked as the best time for a certain distance on a given day.

Show Wager

Betting on a horse to finish in the first three spots, which pays out the same whether they win or run second or third.

Bug

An apprentice jockey.