AU - Illawarra Grange - Race 4

Thoroughbred

9 Runners

7.2f

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 6

32.1K

VIEW

Verdict

MCADAM (1) has been a revelation since front-running tactics have been adopted. Gapped a BM66 field over 1m at Wagga two back then exceeded that figure when dominant last start on the outer circuit here, also at the mile. Keatings' claim is a big help today. Back in trip but hard to tip against. I AM WILD (4) scored two back at Gosford then got too far back over 1m at the same track last time and struggled to get involved. The blinkers going on should add some spark. Big danger with that significant gear change. Veteran TIP TOP TIMING (2) is in the mix out of the inside stall coming off a five-week freshen-up. DIAMOND MODEL (3) did a good job first-up at Newcastle and will appreciate a bit more ground this time.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Chasing a hat-trick. Last start won by 2.25 len at Kembla Grange Bm64 May 9 over 1m defeating Spice Prawn carrying 132lbs at $3.80. Before that won by 6 len at Wagga 4yo+ Bm66 April 30 over 1m defeating Ghost Walker carrying 131lbs at $8.50. In great form and should be right in the thick of things again. 1st Pick 1 Mcadam Jockey: Coriah Keatings Trainer: Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter J: Coriah Keatings T: Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter	162	-	-	-	72%
Analysis Chasing a hat-trick. Last start won by 2.25 len at Kembla Grange Bm64 May 9 over 1m defeating Spice Prawn carrying 132lbs at $3.80. Before that won by 6 len at Wagga 4yo+ Bm66 April 30 over 1m defeating Ghost Walker carrying 131lbs at $8.50. In great form and should be right in the thick of things again.
4	Comes off a 35 day let-up. At the latest run eased back early on 8th of 10 at Gosford Bm64 on April 25 over 1m, 3.5 len behind Stellar Rhonda carrying 127lbs at $11. The start before that was well back until straightening, raced back then made ground from the turn, won by a nose at Gosford Cl1 March 14 over 1m in soft going defeating The Warrior carrying 122lbs at $5.50. Capable of a better run with blinkers applied for the first time. 2nd Pick 4 I Am Wild Jockey: Mitchell Bell Trainer: Ron Quinton J: Mitchell Bell T: Ron Quinton	118	-	-	-	17%
Analysis Comes off a 35 day let-up. At the latest run eased back early on 8th of 10 at Gosford Bm64 on April 25 over 1m, 3.5 len behind Stellar Rhonda carrying 127lbs at $11. The start before that was well back until straightening, raced back then made ground from the turn, won by a nose at Gosford Cl1 March 14 over 1m in soft going defeating The Warrior carrying 122lbs at $5.50. Capable of a better run with blinkers applied for the first time.
7	Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up made ground from midfield, 3rd of 11 at Bathurst Saddle Cl4 on April 25 over 7f, 3 len behind Wal's Angels with 117lbs at $4.80. Last start got back early 4th of 8 at Mudgee Cl2 on May 10 over 7f, 1.0 len behind Mariota carrying 129lbs at $4.60. Tackles a better race today but looks sure to prove hard to beat. 3rd Pick 7 Unreal Expectation Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Tara & Philippe Vigouroux J: Non Runner T: Tara & Philippe Vigouroux	105	-	-	-	1%	Scratched
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up made ground from midfield, 3rd of 11 at Bathurst Saddle Cl4 on April 25 over 7f, 3 len behind Wal's Angels with 117lbs at $4.80. Last start got back early 4th of 8 at Mudgee Cl2 on May 10 over 7f, 1.0 len behind Mariota carrying 129lbs at $4.60. Tackles a better race today but looks sure to prove hard to beat.

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