AU - Caulfield Heath - Race 1

Thoroughbred

9 Runners

Maiden

Turf

GOOD 4

39.1K

VIEW

Verdict

SMOKE SCREEN (8) ran a most encouraging race first up at Ballarat over this trip, only nosed out on that occasion, putting up a strong rating in the process. If she can land close enough from the inside gate she'll go close. INVINCIBLE LOVER (7) has shown plenty of ability in three runs to date, second last time out (albeit beaten 8 lengths) by a speedy one at Cranbourne. If she's got another run in the tank she can break through. STERNIN (9) has been thereabouts in three runs this time in, close up behind Smoke Screen at Ballarat last time. She'll be up on speed and in this for a long way. EXIT STRATEGY (5) is a filly by Bivouac on debut for the Douglas yard who has to be respected with Williams booked.

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Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
8	Racing second-up today. Last start 2nd of 13 at Ballarat Mdn-Sw on February 14 over 5f, nose behind Lonstar carrying 126lbs at $3.30. At only start last preparation second last of 7 at Sandown-Hillside Mdn-Sw on October 1 over 5f, 5.5 len behind Proficient carrying 121lbs at $10. Can improve and will take beating. 1st Pick 8 Smoke Screen Jockey: Declan Bates Trainer: Ciaron Maher J: Declan Bates T: Ciaron Maher	164	-	-	-	46%
Analysis Racing second-up today. Last start 2nd of 13 at Ballarat Mdn-Sw on February 14 over 5f, nose behind Lonstar carrying 126lbs at $3.30. At only start last preparation second last of 7 at Sandown-Hillside Mdn-Sw on October 1 over 5f, 5.5 len behind Proficient carrying 121lbs at $10. Can improve and will take beating.
7	Racing well recently. At the latest run 2nd of 7 at Cranbourne Mdn-Sw on February 13 over 5f, 8 len behind Headbanger with 121lbs at $6. The race before that raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 4th of 9 at Pakenham Mdn-Sw on January 23 over 5 ½f, 2 len behind Fundamental Nature carrying 125lbs at $4.20. Sets up well here and brings good form. 2nd Pick 7 Invincible Lover Jockey: Jamie Melham Trainer: Lloyd Kennewell J: Jamie Melham T: Lloyd Kennewell	184	-	-	-	29%
Analysis Racing well recently. At the latest run 2nd of 7 at Cranbourne Mdn-Sw on February 13 over 5f, 8 len behind Headbanger with 121lbs at $6. The race before that raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 4th of 9 at Pakenham Mdn-Sw on January 23 over 5 ½f, 2 len behind Fundamental Nature carrying 125lbs at $4.20. Sets up well here and brings good form.
9	Most recently led to the turn then faded 5th of 13 at Ballarat Mdn-Sw on February 14 over 5f, 1.0 len behind Lonstar with 126lbs at $3.90. The race before that held ground to the line 3rd of 10 at Kerang Mdn-Sw on December 27 over 5 ½f, 3 len behind Wingsandpropellers carrying 123lbs at $2.25. Not far away last time. Should be hard to run down. 3rd Pick 9 Sternin Jockey: Dean Yendall Trainer: Mitchell Freedman J: Dean Yendall T: Mitchell Freedman	154	-	-	-	15%
Analysis Most recently led to the turn then faded 5th of 13 at Ballarat Mdn-Sw on February 14 over 5f, 1.0 len behind Lonstar with 126lbs at $3.90. The race before that held ground to the line 3rd of 10 at Kerang Mdn-Sw on December 27 over 5 ½f, 3 len behind Wingsandpropellers carrying 123lbs at $2.25. Not far away last time. Should be hard to run down.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Synthetic Surface

A racing surface comprised of silica sand and fibers, such as recycled carpet or spandex. The mixture is then sealed with wax.

Track Bias

The term used to identify which parts of the track or running styles are producing more winners.

Allowance Race

A race with non-claiming conditions set by the racing secretary. They are meant to be a step down from stakes racing.