AU - Wellington - Race 1

Thoroughbred

8 Runners

8.4f

Class 1

Turf

GOOD 4

17.4K

VIEW

Verdict

SABATINA (3) stepped up quickly to 1m at Dubbo last start and was brave in defeat, finding the line well only to miss by half a length. Should have no trouble with the extra ½f here and on current form she has a few lengths on these. ALPINE ROSE (2) tackled a $12K BM50 at Dubbo last time and was only beaten a neck in a welcomed return to form. Fit mare who should fill the quinella spot. BILLABONG ALVIN (5) settled at the tail before passing a few in the straight over 7f in a maiden at Warren recently. Looks in need of this sort of trip. PRIZUGA (6) wasn't all that far off them in a 7f maiden here eight days ago. One for the exotics. BIG BERTHA (7) led then held on for third in a BM50 over 1 ¼m at Bathurst last start. Should be thereabouts again.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
3	Recent form sound. At the latest run raced on the pace when 2nd of 8 at Dubbo Cl1-Sw on November 1 over 1m, 0.5 len behind Brutal Elegance carrying 126lbs at $6. Before that 2nd in a small field at Orange Cl1 on October 9 over 6 ½f, slow going 1.1 len behind Telling with 121lbs at $11. Going far better than these and only needs to run the 1 ¹/16m out to be winning. 1st Pick 3 Sabatina Jockey: Ken Dunbar Trainer: Michael C Lynch J: Ken Dunbar T: Michael C Lynch	154	-	-	-	43%	11/8
Analysis Recent form sound. At the latest run raced on the pace when 2nd of 8 at Dubbo Cl1-Sw on November 1 over 1m, 0.5 len behind Brutal Elegance carrying 126lbs at $6. Before that 2nd in a small field at Orange Cl1 on October 9 over 6 ½f, slow going 1.1 len behind Telling with 121lbs at $11. Going far better than these and only needs to run the 1 ¹/16m out to be winning.
2	Last start 2nd of 9 at Dubbo Bm50 on November 4 over 1m, slow going neck behind Always Fiorente with 123lbs at $5.50. The race before that 9th of 12 at Narromine Bm50 on October 18 over 1m, 6 len behind Danish Hussar with 126lbs at $6.50. Looms as the only serious threat. 2nd Pick 2 Alpine Rose Jockey: Zoe Hunt Trainer: Ashley Gibson J: Zoe Hunt T: Ashley Gibson	113	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Last start 2nd of 9 at Dubbo Bm50 on November 4 over 1m, slow going neck behind Always Fiorente with 123lbs at $5.50. The race before that 9th of 12 at Narromine Bm50 on October 18 over 1m, 6 len behind Danish Hussar with 126lbs at $6.50. Looms as the only serious threat.
5	At the latest run eased back early on 6th of 10 at Warren Mdn on November 9 over 7f, 12 len behind Yiasou with 127lbs at $9.50. The race before that 5th of 12 at Dubbo Ctry Mdn-Sw on November 1 over 7f, 5.5 len behind Maybe Now carrying 130lbs at $13. Can sneak into the minor end of the prize. 3rd Pick 5 Billabong Alvin Jockey: Braith Nock Trainer: Brett Thompson J: Braith Nock T: Brett Thompson	115	-	-	-	12%	15/2
Analysis At the latest run eased back early on 6th of 10 at Warren Mdn on November 9 over 7f, 12 len behind Yiasou with 127lbs at $9.50. The race before that 5th of 12 at Dubbo Ctry Mdn-Sw on November 1 over 7f, 5.5 len behind Maybe Now carrying 130lbs at $13. Can sneak into the minor end of the prize.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Bleeder

A horse that bleeds due to a ruptured blood vessel during a race or workout. The medication Lasix can fix this problem.

Morning Line

An approximation of expected odds in a race, quoted before actual odds are determined.

Scratch

A horse is a scratch when injury or other necessity causes it to be withdrawn from the race.