AU - Warwick Farm - Race 7

Thoroughbred

14 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

41.4K

VIEW

Verdict

AURA (3) has been finding the line with purpose this prep and should be peaking today. Settled near the tail of a field of 14 then made significant late inroads over this course and distance three weeks ago. Handy mare who will prove tough to hold off. CRATHIE KIRK (4) caught the eye first-up over 7f at Kembla then was in need of more ground last time at this track when she stayed at seven furlongs. Drops in grade today and finds her right race. Last start Wyong maiden winner MADE IN ITALY (8) meets a deeper field today but the manner of that breakthrough performance over 1m was pleasing to the eye. In the money at eight of her other nine runs so she is certainly genuine. CHILLI MARGS (1) raced deep without cover when second-up over 7f here recently. Draws a better gate now - getting a strong mile is the only query. OUTTA LINE (2) is fitter for two runs back from a spell and Nash takes over which is a plus.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
3	Last start 6th of 14 in a Bm72 at this track on October 21 over 1m, 1.75 len behind Dubai Warrior carrying 120lbs at $9. The run before that 7th of 9 in a Bm72 at Rosehill on September 30 over 1m, 2.25 len behind Think Itz You carrying 121lbs at $6. Likely to be peaking now and can turn it around. 1st Pick 3 Aura Jockey: Tyler Schiller Trainer: M, W & J Hawkes J: Tyler Schiller T: M, W & J Hawkes	151	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Last start 6th of 14 in a Bm72 at this track on October 21 over 1m, 1.75 len behind Dubai Warrior carrying 120lbs at $9. The run before that 7th of 9 in a Bm72 at Rosehill on September 30 over 1m, 2.25 len behind Think Itz You carrying 121lbs at $6. Likely to be peaking now and can turn it around.
4	Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up 4th of 13 in a Bm64 at Kembla Grange on October 10 over 7f, 1.5 len behind Gridlock with 127lbs at $12. Second-up 5th of 10 in a F&M Bm72 at this track on October 28 over 7f, on a slow track, 5 len behind Love Story with 121lbs at $31. Can improve. Best form stacks up nicely and she is unbeaten third-up. 2nd Pick 4 Crathie Kirk Jockey: William Stanley Trainer: Kris Lees J: William Stanley T: Kris Lees	110	-	-	-	7%	15/1
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up 4th of 13 in a Bm64 at Kembla Grange on October 10 over 7f, 1.5 len behind Gridlock with 127lbs at $12. Second-up 5th of 10 in a F&M Bm72 at this track on October 28 over 7f, on a slow track, 5 len behind Love Story with 121lbs at $31. Can improve. Best form stacks up nicely and she is unbeaten third-up.
8	Most recently won by 2 len in a Mdn-Sw at Wyong on October 29 over 1m defeating Forsaken carrying 126lbs at $4.40. The start before that 5th of 9 in a Super Mdn at this track on October 5 over 1m, on a slow track, 2 len behind True Tone with 128lbs at $5.50. Tougher this time but is capable of making it two on the trot. 3rd Pick 8 Made In Italy Jockey: Tim Clark Trainer: Matthew Smith J: Tim Clark T: Matthew Smith	125	-	-	-	19%	9/2
Analysis Most recently won by 2 len in a Mdn-Sw at Wyong on October 29 over 1m defeating Forsaken carrying 126lbs at $4.40. The start before that 5th of 9 in a Super Mdn at this track on October 5 over 1m, on a slow track, 2 len behind True Tone with 128lbs at $5.50. Tougher this time but is capable of making it two on the trot.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Pari-Mutuel

A pool style wagering system, where all money input through betting is divided among those with winning tickets (save for various deductions by the track operators).

Dead Heat

Two or more horses finishing so close at the wire, that they were unable to be separated on a photo finish and deemed to have tied.

Apprentice

A new jockey who has not ridden a certain number of winners in a specified time period.