AU - Warwick Farm - Race 2

Thoroughbred

11 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

42.9K

VIEW

Verdict

Competitive affair. PHILLIP ISLAND (2) just missed the frame in G3 company last time out and will appreciate the drop back in grade here. Boasts a win over this distance range and will be cherry-ripe now fourth run back from the spell. Sure to be right there when the whips are cracking. The well-related REACHIN' OUT (7) (half to G2 winner and 3xG1 placed Zousain) didn't measure up at G2 level when resuming but will have come on with that run now under the belt. Watch for sharp improvement. PEYTON (6) shed the maiden tag at Gosford first-up and will have derived a stack of confidence from that victory. Include from the inside marble. BLESSED EAGLE (3) also hails from a handy family (half to Listed winner Royal Tribute) and must be respected out of the Waterhouse/Bott yard. Only needs some luck crossing from the wide draw to be featuring in the finish. THE THORNCASTER (9) is a last-start winner who shouldn't be slept on.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
2	Last start 4th of 10 in the G3 HDF McNeil Stakes at Caulfield on August 29 over 6f, on a slow track, 2.75 len behind American Eagle with 126lbs at $20. The race before that won by 1.0 len in a Mdn-Sw at Pakenham Synthetic on August 16 over 6f defeating Covert Mission carrying 126lbs at $4. Expected to go well again. 1st Pick 2 Phillip Island Jockey: Tommy Berry Trainer: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr J: Tommy Berry T: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr	143	-	-	-	7%	15/1
Analysis Last start 4th of 10 in the G3 HDF McNeil Stakes at Caulfield on August 29 over 6f, on a slow track, 2.75 len behind American Eagle with 126lbs at $20. The race before that won by 1.0 len in a Mdn-Sw at Pakenham Synthetic on August 16 over 6f defeating Covert Mission carrying 126lbs at $4. Expected to go well again.
7	Half-sister to Group 2 winner and multiple-Group 1 placed Zousain. Second run back. First-up after four months ran second last of 10 in the G2 Silver Shadow Stakes at Randwick on August 22 over 6f, slow going 7 len behind Pembrey with 121lbs at $26. Previously second-up got back early 7th of 9 in the G2 Percy Sykes Stakes at Randwick on April 11 over 6f, 5.5 len behind Cherry Bomshell carrying 121lbs at $4.20. Rates highly and expected to improve sharply. 2nd Pick 7 Reachin' Out Jockey: Tim Clark Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott J: Tim Clark T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott	155	-	-	-	13%	7/1
Analysis Half-sister to Group 2 winner and multiple-Group 1 placed Zousain. Second run back. First-up after four months ran second last of 10 in the G2 Silver Shadow Stakes at Randwick on August 22 over 6f, slow going 7 len behind Pembrey with 121lbs at $26. Previously second-up got back early 7th of 9 in the G2 Percy Sykes Stakes at Randwick on April 11 over 6f, 5.5 len behind Cherry Bomshell carrying 121lbs at $4.20. Rates highly and expected to improve sharply.
6	Second-up. First-up after five months favourite, raced right near the speed and boxed on, won by 0.6 len in a Cge Mdn-Sw at Gosford on August 28 over 5 ½f on a soft track defeating Not On My Watch carrying 125lbs at $2.50. Previously second-up 3rd of 10 in a 2yo C&G Osc at Randwick Kensington on March 25 over 5 ½f, slow going 3.5 len behind Under Focus with 123lbs at $9. Still has scope for improvement and is among the better hopes. 3rd Pick 6 Peyton Jockey: Zac Lloyd Trainer: John O'shea & Tom Charlton J: Zac Lloyd T: John O'shea & Tom Charlton	157	-	-	-	45%	5/4
Analysis Second-up. First-up after five months favourite, raced right near the speed and boxed on, won by 0.6 len in a Cge Mdn-Sw at Gosford on August 28 over 5 ½f on a soft track defeating Not On My Watch carrying 125lbs at $2.50. Previously second-up 3rd of 10 in a 2yo C&G Osc at Randwick Kensington on March 25 over 5 ½f, slow going 3.5 len behind Under Focus with 123lbs at $9. Still has scope for improvement and is among the better hopes.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Rabbit

Also known as a pacemaker; this is a horse with no expected chance of winning but is used to prompt a quick pace on the front end of the race to the benefit of a stablemate who is a closer.

State-Bred

A horse bred in a particular state and thus eligible to race in restricted state-bred races. These can be anything from maiden races to stakes events.

Starter Race

An allowance race restricted to horses who have started for a certain claiming price recently.