AU - Rosehill - Race 4

Thoroughbred

8 Runners

11.9f

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

42.4K

VIEW

Verdict

CENTENARIO (2) settled worse than midfield then really worked through the gears and won pulling away last start over 1 ³/16m at Canterbury. Untested beyond 1 5/16m but he is genuine and in the right hands. LUNAR LOVER (5) won two back at Kembla then tried very hard but missed by a neck in a similar race to this at Warwick Farm three weeks ago. Honest stayer who still gets in well at the weights and looks sure to figure again. SUBARCTIC (7) made late ground to finish just 0.7 lengths behind Lunar Lover when they clashed at the Farm recently. Back in form and is a big chance if he produces a similar effort this afternoon. STYLEBENDER (3) dominated over 1 5/16m at Warwick Farm last Wednesday. Has won at this trip and while up in grade today he drops 2lbs with the claim. Must be included. OAKFIELD HAWK (6) was poor last start but is back at the races with Tommy Berry aboard so he might be worth another chance.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
2	Third-up today and placed third-up previously. First-up 3rd of 8 at Canterbury 5yo+ Bm72 on January 30 over 7 ¾f, 1.5 len behind Ivan's Hero with 130lbs at $4.60. Second-up favourite, won by a neck at Canterbury Bm78 February 13 over 1 ³/16m defeating Kenmare Bay with 123lbs at $2.80. Genuine middle-distance performer on trial at this trip but is back in great order and can win again. 1st Pick 2 Centenario Jockey: Regan Bayliss Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott J: Regan Bayliss T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott	175	-	-	-	42%
Analysis Third-up today and placed third-up previously. First-up 3rd of 8 at Canterbury 5yo+ Bm72 on January 30 over 7 ¾f, 1.5 len behind Ivan's Hero with 130lbs at $4.60. Second-up favourite, won by a neck at Canterbury Bm78 February 13 over 1 ³/16m defeating Kenmare Bay with 123lbs at $2.80. Genuine middle-distance performer on trial at this trip but is back in great order and can win again.
5	Recent form sound. Most recently sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 10 at Warwick Farm Bm78 on February 4 over 1 ½m, neck behind Assailant with 120lbs at $4. The race before that won by 2.5 len at Kembla Grange Bm64 January 22 over 1 ½m on a rain affected track defeating Sweet Bubbles with 130lbs at $2.25. Rock hard fit and we know he will run this right out. 2nd Pick 5 Lunar Lover Jockey: Jason Collett Trainer: Matthew Smith J: Jason Collett T: Matthew Smith	144	-	-	-	34%
Analysis Recent form sound. Most recently sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 10 at Warwick Farm Bm78 on February 4 over 1 ½m, neck behind Assailant with 120lbs at $4. The race before that won by 2.5 len at Kembla Grange Bm64 January 22 over 1 ½m on a rain affected track defeating Sweet Bubbles with 130lbs at $2.25. Rock hard fit and we know he will run this right out.
7	Most recently came from midfield, 3rd of 10 at Warwick Farm Bm78 on February 4 over 1 ½m, 1.0 len behind Assailant with 121lbs at $16. The race before that 8th of 10 at Canterbury 5yo+ Bm72 on January 23 over 1 ³/16m, slow going 5.5 len behind Allegro Miss carrying 130lbs at $12. Dour type who will be strong again at the end of this. 3rd Pick 7 Subarctic Jockey: Tyler Schiller Trainer: Matthew Smith J: Tyler Schiller T: Matthew Smith	124	-	-	-	10%
Analysis Most recently came from midfield, 3rd of 10 at Warwick Farm Bm78 on February 4 over 1 ½m, 1.0 len behind Assailant with 121lbs at $16. The race before that 8th of 10 at Canterbury 5yo+ Bm72 on January 23 over 1 ³/16m, slow going 5.5 len behind Allegro Miss carrying 130lbs at $12. Dour type who will be strong again at the end of this.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Turf Course

A racetrack made of grass.

Stewards

The officials watching every race at a meet to enforce the rules.

Bobble/Stumble

A slip or a duck from a horse trying to leave the starting gates, often caused by the surface giving way under the feet. This can range from a mild misstep to a stumble down to their knees.