AU - Orange - Race 8

Thoroughbred

13 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

21.4K

VIEW

Verdict

WRITTEN BY LUCY (3) followed up a strong first-up effort with a gutsy all-the-way win over today's distance at Nowra last start. Won't find this any harder and with further improvement likely at this stage of the prep another win looks on the cards. BROGANS CREEK (5) has been narrowly defeated at both runs this time in work, the latest just seven days ago when a photo went against him in a BM50 over this distance at Wellington. Perfectly drawn to add to his sound record here at this trip. BRIEF STATEMENT (1) overcame early interference to be beaten just a neck in a similar race here 26 days ago. Big chance with another effort like that. SORRENTO PALACE (2) is a good fresh performer back from a 23-week spell. Loves this trip so a solid return seems likely. INSANE VOLT (6) stepped up in class but managed to lead all the way and salute over 5 ½f at Nowra recently. Just one placing in ten runs on good tracks rings alarms.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
3	Dual acceptor. Third-up today and placed third-up previously. First-up came from midfield, 2nd of 11 at Canberra 4yo+ Bm50 on March 25 over 5f, slow going 1.0 len behind Into The Fire carrying 136lbs at $4. Second-up favourite, won by 1.3 len at Nowra Ctry Cl1 April 5 over 5f on a heavy track defeating Baby Daisy carrying 128lbs at $1.45. Going better than ever this prep and there is further improvement to come. 1st Pick 3 Written By Lucy Jockey: Damon Budler Trainer: Rob Potter J: Damon Budler T: Rob Potter	187	-	-	-	31%	9/4
Analysis Dual acceptor. Third-up today and placed third-up previously. First-up came from midfield, 2nd of 11 at Canberra 4yo+ Bm50 on March 25 over 5f, slow going 1.0 len behind Into The Fire carrying 136lbs at $4. Second-up favourite, won by 1.3 len at Nowra Ctry Cl1 April 5 over 5f on a heavy track defeating Baby Daisy carrying 128lbs at $1.45. Going better than ever this prep and there is further improvement to come.
5	Third-up today and won third-up in the past. First-up made some head-way from midfield, 3rd of 10 at this track Bm58 on March 22 over 5f, 0.5 len behind Denman Force carrying 130lbs at $31. Second-up 3rd of 9 at Wellington Ctry Bm50 Cl2+ on April 10 over 5f, nose behind Seeni carrying 134lbs at $4.20. Profiles nicely. Cherry ripe and will take plenty of beating on the seven-day back-up. 2nd Pick 5 Brogans Creek Jockey: Nick Heywood Trainer: Toby Pracey J: Nick Heywood T: Toby Pracey	141	-	-	-	19%	9/2
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up in the past. First-up made some head-way from midfield, 3rd of 10 at this track Bm58 on March 22 over 5f, 0.5 len behind Denman Force carrying 130lbs at $31. Second-up 3rd of 9 at Wellington Ctry Bm50 Cl2+ on April 10 over 5f, nose behind Seeni carrying 134lbs at $4.20. Profiles nicely. Cherry ripe and will take plenty of beating on the seven-day back-up.
1	Most recently came from midfield, 2nd of 10 at this track Bm58 on March 22 over 5f, neck behind Denman Force with 133lbs at $16. The start before that raced on the speed throughout before fading 7th of 12 at Dubbo Bm82 on March 6 over 5 ½f, 7 len behind Inazuma Boy with 117lbs at $21. Not far away of late. Can play a key role with a repeat of that last effort. 3rd Pick 1 Brief Statement Jockey: Jacob Stiff Trainer: Alison Smith J: Jacob Stiff T: Alison Smith	148	-	-	-	10%	10/1
Analysis Most recently came from midfield, 2nd of 10 at this track Bm58 on March 22 over 5f, neck behind Denman Force with 133lbs at $16. The start before that raced on the speed throughout before fading 7th of 12 at Dubbo Bm82 on March 6 over 5 ½f, 7 len behind Inazuma Boy with 117lbs at $21. Not far away of late. Can play a key role with a repeat of that last effort.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Overlay

A horse going off at higher odds than his recent efforts show that he deserves.

Pari-Mutuel

A pool style wagering system, where all money input through betting is divided among those with winning tickets (save for various deductions by the track operators).

Scratch

A horse is a scratch when injury or other necessity causes it to be withdrawn from the race.