AU - Orange - Race 5

Thoroughbred

8 Runners

OPEN

Turf

GOOD 4

25.0K

VIEW

Verdict

Small field but an interesting contest. Flying mare IOWNA BENZ (3) has struck form with back-to-back wins over today's trip, the latest in open company at Canberra where she rolled some of today's key rivals. Hoping the change in rider won't upset the momentum. Deserves top billing in a competitive race. AEGIPAN (6) was first-up from an eight-week break when a game fourth to Iowna Merc at Canberra last time, racing three-wide for the trip but only going down by 1.2 lengths. Fitter for that run and should enjoy a bit more luck today. Can turn the tables without surprising. RUMOURS ABOUND (1) led but capitulated over 4 ½f at Albury at her last run a month ago. Subsequent trial winner who is far more effective over today's journey. PANIC (2) hasn't won for two years but did get close in Iowna Merc's race at Canberra recently. Blinkers on for the first time might do the trick. SUTTON VELLA (5) loves the 5f trip and is a chance first-up from a five-month lay-off.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
3	Chasing a hat-trick. Last start tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by a head at Canberra Open April 3 over 5f on a rain affected track defeating Teylu carrying 122lbs at $4.20. The start before that won by 1.3 len at Wagga Bm66 March 12 over 5f defeating Judith's Revenge with 133lbs at $2.30. Showing a great will to win and the hat trick is certainly within reach. 1st Pick 3 Iowna Benz Jockey: Mikayla Weir Trainer: Luke Pepper J: Mikayla Weir T: Luke Pepper	195	-	-	-	31%	9/4
Analysis Chasing a hat-trick. Last start tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by a head at Canberra Open April 3 over 5f on a rain affected track defeating Teylu carrying 122lbs at $4.20. The start before that won by 1.3 len at Wagga Bm66 March 12 over 5f defeating Judith's Revenge with 133lbs at $2.30. Showing a great will to win and the hat trick is certainly within reach.
6	Dual acceptor. Most recently sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 4th of 8 at Canberra Open on April 3 over 5f, slow going 1.2 len behind Iowna Benz carrying 121lbs at $31. Before that 6th of 9 at Canberra Bm65 on February 6 over 5f, 3.5 len behind Keadool carrying 132lbs at $5.50. Distance specialist who is fitter for that last run and poses a serious threat. 2nd Pick 6 Aegipan Jockey: Winona Costin Trainer: Pat Murphy J: Winona Costin T: Pat Murphy	138	-	-	-	10%	10/1
Analysis Dual acceptor. Most recently sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 4th of 8 at Canberra Open on April 3 over 5f, slow going 1.2 len behind Iowna Benz carrying 121lbs at $31. Before that 6th of 9 at Canberra Bm65 on February 6 over 5f, 3.5 len behind Keadool carrying 132lbs at $5.50. Distance specialist who is fitter for that last run and poses a serious threat.
1	Last start 8th of 12 at Albury Flat Knacker 94 on March 20 over 4 ½f, slow going 4 len behind Sparring carrying 116lbs at $6. The race before that led to the turn then faded 7th of 9 at Canterbury 5yo+ Bm72 on February 20 over 5 ½f, 4 len behind Kimberley Secrets with 129lbs at $3.50. The winner of five races at 5f so this is right in her wheelhouse. 3rd Pick 1 Rumours Abound Jockey: Ella Bent Trainer: Ron Stubbs J: Ella Bent T: Ron Stubbs	104	-	-	-	23%	7/2
Analysis Last start 8th of 12 at Albury Flat Knacker 94 on March 20 over 4 ½f, slow going 4 len behind Sparring carrying 116lbs at $6. The race before that led to the turn then faded 7th of 9 at Canterbury 5yo+ Bm72 on February 20 over 5 ½f, 4 len behind Kimberley Secrets with 129lbs at $3.50. The winner of five races at 5f so this is right in her wheelhouse.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Workout

A workout is a timed sprint over varying distances prior to a race, meant to get a horse fit enough for competition.

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

Bolt

A sudden veering to the inside or outside rail, often caused by the horse spooking or shying from something.