JP - Mombetsu - Race 4

Thoroughbred

16 Runners

Unknown

Dirt

4.3K

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Verdict

JASPER CROSS (8) gets the nod after finishing fourth at this track last start, beaten just over half a length by Derma Haruna, and that came with market respect near the top of an open betting race. The 6f record is still to be improved, but his latest C4 figure gives him a strong platform. LOVE LEGAL (1) is the proven, in-form danger after a nose second behind Earth J Sonte and a third to Berken at this venue, with the quick back-up suiting, though the drop to 6f is the key question. LUCENT MOON (10) was a solid third to Levantarse last start, gets weight relief and has the ratings profile to run well despite a modest overall strike-rate. MELA VERDE (12) is the fresh improver in the mix, having charged home from well back to beat Daimei Z over 5f, and she brings upside if the extra 1f is within reach.

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Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
8	Ran a close fourth behind Derma Haruna at this track last start, beaten just over half a length after holding a position near the top of an open market. Two back he was fifth to Sucrerie over 5f, but the key detail was that he picked up nicely from the rear in the straight. His 6f record is yet to show a placing, but the latest effort is strong enough to make him the horse to beat. 1st Pick 8 Jasper Cross Jockey: Ryu Abe Trainer: Masataka Sakuma J: Ryu Abe T: Masataka Sakuma	102	-	-	-	29%	5/2
Analysis Ran a close fourth behind Derma Haruna at this track last start, beaten just over half a length after holding a position near the top of an open market. Two back he was fifth to Sucrerie over 5f, but the key detail was that he picked up nicely from the rear in the straight. His 6f record is yet to show a placing, but the latest effort is strong enough to make him the horse to beat.
1	Pipped at the post when second to Earth J Sonte over 1 ¹/16m at this track last start, beaten a nose after starting as an outside chance in the betting. That followed a third to Berken over 1m, beaten a length and a half, so the current form reads well. The drop to 6f is the query, with five previous starts around this trip for no placings, but his track record and quick back-up keep him right in the race. 2nd Pick 1 Love Legal Jockey: Asahi Wakasugi Trainer: Masahiro Saito J: Asahi Wakasugi T: Masahiro Saito	109	-	-	-	25%	3/1
Analysis Pipped at the post when second to Earth J Sonte over 1 ¹/16m at this track last start, beaten a nose after starting as an outside chance in the betting. That followed a third to Berken over 1m, beaten a length and a half, so the current form reads well. The drop to 6f is the query, with five previous starts around this trip for no placings, but his track record and quick back-up keep him right in the race.
10	Settled rearward and finished third behind Levantarse at this track last start, beaten just over two lengths at an outside quote. The run prior was plain behind Fortune Bell, but he now backs up quickly with weight relief and rates strongly on the available 6f measures. The maiden record is the obvious caution, yet his latest effort gives him a real winning chance in this line-up. 3rd Pick 10 Lucent Moon Jockey: Watanabe Trainer: Moriyama Takehiro J: Watanabe T: Moriyama Takehiro	71	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Settled rearward and finished third behind Levantarse at this track last start, beaten just over two lengths at an outside quote. The run prior was plain behind Fortune Bell, but he now backs up quickly with weight relief and rates strongly on the available 6f measures. The maiden record is the obvious caution, yet his latest effort gives him a real winning chance in this line-up.

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