JP - Mombetsu - Race 11

Thoroughbred

15 Runners

Unknown

Dirt

7.0K

VIEW

R10

R11

R12

Verdict

VIVI CAMELLIA (2) is the top pick after putting away Blue Album by a length and a half at this track, and her record of one win and two placings from five starts gives her the most reliable profile among the key chances. BELLAGIO MARTIN (6) is the immediate danger, having broken through by three lengths at this venue after a solid third to Mahuika, and his consistency keeps him firmly in the winning discussion. SAORI (3) brings a sharp five-length win two starts ago and was only beaten a length and a half last start, though 6f is an untried test. WILL MATIC (4) has the most to prove off two plain efforts, but he has won at this track and comes from a leading local stable, so a rebound would not surprise.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
2	Turned the latest run into a strong winning reference, beating Blue Album by a length and a half at this track after travelling like the winner near the turn. That answered the fade behind Ruby Grass the start prior, and her 6f record of one win and two placings from four attempts is exactly the sort of profile this race demands. Drawn to be handy and looks the one they have to beat. 1st Pick 2 Vivi Camellia Jockey: Ryu Abe Trainer: Fuyuki Igarashi J: Ryu Abe T: Fuyuki Igarashi	135	-	-	-	15%	6/1
Analysis Turned the latest run into a strong winning reference, beating Blue Album by a length and a half at this track after travelling like the winner near the turn. That answered the fade behind Ruby Grass the start prior, and her 6f record of one win and two placings from four attempts is exactly the sort of profile this race demands. Drawn to be handy and looks the one they have to beat.
6	Broke through in convincing style last start, beating Mana Uila by three lengths at this track after taking control and extending strongly. That followed a steady third behind Mahuika, so his form pattern is heading the right way. He has a win and three placings from seven runs around 6f and has been respected in the market at his latest two. Rates as a genuine winning threat. 2nd Pick 6 Bellagio Martin Jockey: Takafumi Hattori Trainer: Takahiro Matsumoto J: Takafumi Hattori T: Takahiro Matsumoto	93	-	-	-	31%	9/4
Analysis Broke through in convincing style last start, beating Mana Uila by three lengths at this track after taking control and extending strongly. That followed a steady third behind Mahuika, so his form pattern is heading the right way. He has a win and three placings from seven runs around 6f and has been respected in the market at his latest two. Rates as a genuine winning threat.
3	Produced a dominant win two starts back, beating Cupitus by five lengths at this track when sent out favourite, then was sound rather than brilliant when fourth to Yi Er Thunder over 5f last start. The rise to 6f is new, but her overall record at this venue is solid and the winning rider is back aboard. If she sees out the extra ground, she has the form to test them. 3rd Pick 3 Saori Jockey: Manato Kurosawa Trainer: Moriyama Takehiro J: Manato Kurosawa T: Moriyama Takehiro	87	-	-	-	8%	13/1
Analysis Produced a dominant win two starts back, beating Cupitus by five lengths at this track when sent out favourite, then was sound rather than brilliant when fourth to Yi Er Thunder over 5f last start. The rise to 6f is new, but her overall record at this venue is solid and the winning rider is back aboard. If she sees out the extra ground, she has the form to test them.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Starter Race

An allowance race restricted to horses who have started for a certain claiming price recently.

Objection

Claim of foul lodged by a jockey for perceived dangerous or illegal riding by a rival.

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Betting on a horse to finish in the first three spots, which pays out the same whether they win or run second or third.