JP - Urawa - Race 11

ALVAREZ (7) resumes as the clear horse to beat after closing last campaign with four straight wins, the latest a B2 success at this track where he beat Belgarath by two and a half lengths as favourite. His track-and-distance record is excellent and four wins from four starts with Aoi Shinoya gives the profile a further lift. SPENCER BAROWS (5) is the main danger, with his first-up third over 1 ¼m backed by a sound B1 fourth before the break and a strong 7f record overall. NINGENTE IINA (8) was beaten six and a half lengths in a COND at Nagoya last time, but his prior third at this venue reads well and he is unbeaten from the place perspective at this track and distance. TWENTY FOR (6) has the least convincing recent form of the four, having folded late before the spell, though her track-and-distance placing rate keeps her in the discussion if she returns closer to her better figures.