JP - Kawasaki - Race 6

Thoroughbred

12 Runners

4.5f

Unknown

Dirt

12.0K

VIEW

R10

R11

R12

Verdict

PORT ELLEN (7) is the clear horse to beat after a neck second at this track in a COND, having started odds-on, and her previous B4 third at Mombetsu was also within just over half a length. Her overall record is strong, with three wins and four placings from eight starts, and six starts around 4 ½f have produced three wins and three placings. SANONO LOVE ME (6) has ugly recent figures, finishing ninth and 11th at Urawa, but the ratings profile over the past 12 months gives her a better chance than those margins suggest. ACTION BRIQUET (5) was disappointing when last as a well-supported favourite, yet her prior second in a COND at this track and proven track-distance record keep her in the race. M T RIO (11) resumes from a six-month break with two wins from seven starts overall and a useful 4 ½f profile, so she has place-to-win claims if ready first-up.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
7	Went within a neck of winning a COND at this track last start after being sent out an odds-on favourite, and that followed a close B4 third at Mombetsu when beaten just over half a length. Her broader profile is excellent, with three wins and four placings from eight starts and a perfect top-three record around 4 ½f. She brings the strongest recent form and looks the one to beat. 1st Pick 7 Port Ellen Jockey: Niihara Shuma Trainer: Hiromi Yamazaki J: Niihara Shuma T: Hiromi Yamazaki	165	-	-	-	39%	13/8
Analysis Went within a neck of winning a COND at this track last start after being sent out an odds-on favourite, and that followed a close B4 third at Mombetsu when beaten just over half a length. Her broader profile is excellent, with three wins and four placings from eight starts and a perfect top-three record around 4 ½f. She brings the strongest recent form and looks the one to beat.
6	Recent form is unattractive, with a ninth at Urawa over 7f last start after fading late and an 11th there before that when tailed off. The market showed little interest on both occasions, which is the clear concern. Even so, she is rated well over the past 12 months, has four career wins, and the return to 4 ½f gives her a platform to improve into winning calculations. 2nd Pick 6 Sanono Love Me Jockey: Yoshimi Hanzawa Trainer: Yutaka Kawashima J: Yoshimi Hanzawa T: Yutaka Kawashima	54	-	-	-	27%	11/4
Analysis Recent form is unattractive, with a ninth at Urawa over 7f last start after fading late and an 11th there before that when tailed off. The market showed little interest on both occasions, which is the clear concern. Even so, she is rated well over the past 12 months, has four career wins, and the return to 4 ½f gives her a platform to improve into winning calculations.
5	Can be forgiven only so far for last start, when she led as a well-supported favourite at this track but was swamped and finished last, beaten over 11 lengths. Her prior second in a COND at this venue was far stronger, travelling well and beaten a length and a half. With a win and a placing from four tries at this track and distance, she can rebound strongly. 3rd Pick 5 Action Briquet Jockey: Akira Harita Trainer: Sakai Shinobu J: Akira Harita T: Sakai Shinobu	115	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Can be forgiven only so far for last start, when she led as a well-supported favourite at this track but was swamped and finished last, beaten over 11 lengths. Her prior second in a COND at this venue was far stronger, travelling well and beaten a length and a half. With a win and a placing from four tries at this track and distance, she can rebound strongly.

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