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12:48 midnight

NZ - Hastings - Race 4

Thoroughbred
13 Runners
8f
Benchmark
Turf
SOFT 6
36.4K

All race stats and comments are provided by numberfire. Complex algorithms are used to calculate stats like the power rating. Numberfire picks are provided by horse racing experts that work with numberfire.

Verdict

TAYLOR SQUARE (4) was fresh since running last in the G1 NZ Derby in March when motored home to score at Ruakaka last month. Kept on ice since. Take beating. OCEAN RULES (12) two solid efforts at Ellerslie without really threatening this prep but fitter for those runs and the mile suites now. Danger. JACOBITE RISING (1) ran on strongly from well back when fresh here last month and step up to a mile suits. Respect. MARANELLO (2) not a mile away in his recent starts and forgive latest when over-raced & lost a plate. Can improve here. STARCLAN (3) caught the eye when charging home late in a fresh state here recently and has a much better record 2nd-up compared to first-up.
numberFire Picks
Horse Stats
#/SilkHorse#/HorsePower RatingHigh SpeedWin %Top 3%Win ProbOdds
4
Taylor Square silk

Second-up. Comes off a 38-day let-up. First-up after six months favourite, ran on from midfield and won by a 0.5 len at Ruakaka on September 2 over 7f on a soft track defeating Gold Card with 125lbs at $3.30. Previously second-up 4th of 11 in the G3 Bonecrusher Stakes at Pukekohe on December 6 over 7f, on a slow track, 3.5 len behind That's Gold carrying 126lbs at $103. Strips fitter and is likely to feature.

1st Pick
4

Taylor Square

Jockey: Masahiro Hashizume

Trainer: Paul Mirabelli

J: Masahiro Hashizume

T: Paul Mirabelli

123---10%9/1

Analysis

Second-up. Comes off a 38-day let-up. First-up after six months favourite, ran on from midfield and won by a 0.5 len at Ruakaka on September 2 over 7f on a soft track defeating Gold Card with 125lbs at $3.30. Previously second-up 4th of 11 in the G3 Bonecrusher Stakes at Pukekohe on December 6 over 7f, on a slow track, 3.5 len behind That's Gold carrying 126lbs at $103. Strips fitter and is likely to feature.

12
Ocean Rules silk

Third-up today. First-up 4th of 13 at Ellerslie on September 5 over 5 ½f, slow going 2.25 len behind With A Vengeance with 126lbs at $11.10. Last start 6th of 15 at Ellerslie on September 19 over 7 ½f, slow going 5 len behind Rob's Mistake carrying 126lbs at $6.80. Rates highly. Key runner on her best form and can feature in the finish.

2nd Pick
12

Ocean Rules

Jockey: Courtney Barnes

Trainer: Stephen Marsh

J: Courtney Barnes

T: Stephen Marsh

85---17%5/1

Analysis

Third-up today. First-up 4th of 13 at Ellerslie on September 5 over 5 ½f, slow going 2.25 len behind With A Vengeance with 126lbs at $11.10. Last start 6th of 15 at Ellerslie on September 19 over 7 ½f, slow going 5 len behind Rob's Mistake carrying 126lbs at $6.80. Rates highly. Key runner on her best form and can feature in the finish.

1
Jacobite Rising silk

Second run back. First-up after five months 2nd of 10 at this track on September 12 over 7f, in the wet, neck behind Whiskey N' Rye carrying 128lbs at $10.80. Previously second-up ran on from midfield, 3rd of 11 at Wanganui on January 19 over 1m, on a slow track, 0.4 len behind Sol De Otono with 129lbs at $13. Sure to run well.

3rd Pick
1

Jacobite Rising

Jockey: Jonathan Riddell

Trainer: John Bary

J: Jonathan Riddell

T: John Bary

104---20%4/1

Analysis

Second run back. First-up after five months 2nd of 10 at this track on September 12 over 7f, in the wet, neck behind Whiskey N' Rye carrying 128lbs at $10.80. Previously second-up ran on from midfield, 3rd of 11 at Wanganui on January 19 over 1m, on a slow track, 0.4 len behind Sol De Otono with 129lbs at $13. Sure to run well.

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Bute

Shortened word for phenylbutazone, the common non-steroidal medication legal at most racetrack.

Firm

A dry turf course, equal to a ‘fast’ dirt track.

Maiden Race

A race exclusively for horses who have not previously won.