Hong Kong Sha Tin - Race 3

Thoroughbred

14 Runners

Restricted

Turf

GOOD

149.2K

VIEW

R10

R11

Verdict

AMAZING DUCK (13) looks the horse to beat after two solid C5 runs this campaign, finishing second to General Smart before running fourth as a well-supported favourite behind All Are Mine. He rises to Class 4, but the weight relief is significant. Draws the inside and with his racing pattern, he's an attractive commodity. ABSOLUTE AWAKENED (3) brings the sharper winning form, having beaten Etalon Or two starts ago before a sound fourth behind Storm Mirror. Out to the mile now is significant and he's got the foundations to put it all together today. POLAR PATCH (11) was beaten just under two lengths first-up and is open to improvement. Not to be discounted. CAVA PIONEER (4) has been plain on paper, but he is lightly raced, gets Zac Purton, and can improve sharply enough to stay in the winning conversation.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
13	Brings the most consistent recent form, finishing second to General Smart two starts ago before a fourth behind All Are Mine as well-supported favourite. He rises from Class 5 to Class 4, but drops sharply from the 134lbs carried at both recent runs and can make use of barrier one. Clear top pick. 1st Pick 13 Amazing Duck Jockey: Harry Bentley Trainer: K H Ting J: Harry Bentley T: K H Ting	178	-	-	-	23%	7/2
Analysis Brings the most consistent recent form, finishing second to General Smart two starts ago before a fourth behind All Are Mine as well-supported favourite. He rises from Class 5 to Class 4, but drops sharply from the 134lbs carried at both recent runs and can make use of barrier one. Clear top pick.
3	Kept finding when fourth behind Storm Mirror last start, beaten just under four lengths after being near the top of an open market. That followed a first-up win at this venue, where he scored by a length from Etalon Or at big odds. He has won at the distance, Derek Leung is back aboard, and he has recent form over Cava Pioneer. Proven at 1m and race-fit now, so he rates as a key danger. 2nd Pick 3 Absolute Awakened Jockey: Derek Leung Trainer: David A Hayes J: Derek Leung T: David A Hayes	131	-	-	-	10%	9/1
Analysis Kept finding when fourth behind Storm Mirror last start, beaten just under four lengths after being near the top of an open market. That followed a first-up win at this venue, where he scored by a length from Etalon Or at big odds. He has won at the distance, Derek Leung is back aboard, and he has recent form over Cava Pioneer. Proven at 1m and race-fit now, so he rates as a key danger.
11	Resumed with a good sixth to Lady's Love at this track, beaten just under two lengths after being prominent in an open market. His previous run can be treated more kindly as he was wide without cover and carried very wide entering the straight. Still has a 1m query, but the form puts him right in this. 3rd Pick 11 Polar Patch Jockey: Andrea Atzeni Trainer: Mark Newnham J: Andrea Atzeni T: Mark Newnham	75	-	-	-	9%	11/1
Analysis Resumed with a good sixth to Lady's Love at this track, beaten just under two lengths after being prominent in an open market. His previous run can be treated more kindly as he was wide without cover and carried very wide entering the straight. Still has a 1m query, but the form puts him right in this.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Tack

The equipment the horse wears, including saddle and bridle. A jockey typically has their own racing saddle, placed on each horse they ride just before the race.

Allowance Race

A race with non-claiming conditions set by the racing secretary. They are meant to be a step down from stakes racing.

Track Bias

The term used to identify which parts of the track or running styles are producing more winners.