NZ - Ellerslie - Race 8

Thoroughbred

18 Runners

7.5f

OPEN

Turf

SOFT 5

60.4K

VIEW

Verdict

EL VENCEDOR (1) was a beaten favourite in the G1 Zabeel Classic in an oddly run race. He is at his best when allowed to stride to the front, and if he can find that spot from the pole position, then he will take all sorts of beating in this. JAARFFI (2) has been racing consistently without winning, and was a game runner-up in the G1 Zabeel Classic here just over 5 weeks ago. She has won her only start over this trip and should go close to winning again. FROSTFAIR (8) ended up getting too far back early on here last week, and with a more positive ride, she can find a spot closer to the pace this time. She is ready for a mile again and can figure in the top 3 here. MOXIE (15) caught the eye with a huge late finish out wide in the G3 Aotearoa Classic last week. She drops 6lbs, and from a better gate, she can take this out. WHAT YOU WISH FOR (5) flew home to score an overdue win in the Taupo Cup last time out. Stick with him. MERCURIAL (6) is ready now to show some good form. Include.

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Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Comes here off a 36-day let-up. Last start tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 6th of 9 at this track in the G1 Zabeel Classic on December 26 over 1 ¼m, on a slow track, 6 len behind Kingswood with 130lbs at $3.60. The run before that gave a sight but was run down late 2nd of 10 at this track in the G3 Great Northern Challenge Stakes on November 29 over 1m, slow going head behind Mary Shan carrying 130lbs at $1.50. Goes well here and is sure to prove hard to beat. 1st Pick 1 El Vencedor Jockey: Opie Bosson Trainer: Stephen Marsh J: Opie Bosson T: Stephen Marsh	203	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Comes here off a 36-day let-up. Last start tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 6th of 9 at this track in the G1 Zabeel Classic on December 26 over 1 ¼m, on a slow track, 6 len behind Kingswood with 130lbs at $3.60. The run before that gave a sight but was run down late 2nd of 10 at this track in the G3 Great Northern Challenge Stakes on November 29 over 1m, slow going head behind Mary Shan carrying 130lbs at $1.50. Goes well here and is sure to prove hard to beat.
2	Racing well recently. Returns from a 36-day let-up. Most recently 2nd of 9 at this track in the G1 Zabeel Classic on December 26 over 1 ¼m, on a slow track, 1.5 len behind Kingswood with 126lbs at $15.30. The start before that 3rd of 7 at Te Rapa in the G2 Lady Norrie (Cal Isuzu) Stakes on December 13 over 1m, on a slow track, 1.1 len behind Hinekaha carrying 126lbs at $5.60. Tough to beat on the latest effort. 2nd Pick 2 Jaarffi Jockey: Warren Kennedy Trainer: Lance Noble J: Warren Kennedy T: Lance Noble	98	-	-	-	13%	7/1
Analysis Racing well recently. Returns from a 36-day let-up. Most recently 2nd of 9 at this track in the G1 Zabeel Classic on December 26 over 1 ¼m, on a slow track, 1.5 len behind Kingswood with 126lbs at $15.30. The start before that 3rd of 7 at Te Rapa in the G2 Lady Norrie (Cal Isuzu) Stakes on December 13 over 1m, on a slow track, 1.1 len behind Hinekaha carrying 126lbs at $5.60. Tough to beat on the latest effort.
8	Last start settled back and ran on when 6th of 10 at this track on January 24 over 7f, on a slow track, 1.5 len behind Moschino with 121lbs at $16.10. The start before that 2nd in a small field at this track on December 26 over 7f, on a slow track, 1.1 len behind Vegas Queen carrying 121lbs at $3.40. Terrific chance to return to winning form. 3rd Pick 8 Frostfair Jockey: Triston Moodley Trainer: Lance Noble J: Triston Moodley T: Lance Noble	97	-	-	-	10%	9/1
Analysis Last start settled back and ran on when 6th of 10 at this track on January 24 over 7f, on a slow track, 1.5 len behind Moschino with 121lbs at $16.10. The start before that 2nd in a small field at this track on December 26 over 7f, on a slow track, 1.1 len behind Vegas Queen carrying 121lbs at $3.40. Terrific chance to return to winning form.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Show Wager

Betting on a horse to finish in the first three spots, which pays out the same whether they win or run second or third.

Overlay

A horse going off at higher odds than his recent efforts show that he deserves.

Main Track Only

A horse entered for main track only (MTO) is one hoping the weather forecast or track conditions will move the race off the turf course and onto the main track. They are scratched the morning of the race if the conditions stay dry.