NZ - Ellerslie - Race 8

Thoroughbred

17 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 5

31.3K

VIEW

Verdict

LUVABEEL (12) got back last in a strung out field and still 15L back on the turn but got going for 4th when fresh here last month. Can't get as far back as last time and extra ½f ideal. The one to beat. FASTDEELDUN (4) much better effort last time when making ground from midfield but was a touch flat footed on the turn. Fitter for this. VICTOR TANGO (8) honest efforts in 3 starts this prep getting up in trip each time. Big run from the rear last time and this trip ideal now. Wide draw the query. SNEAKY CYCLONE (3) is racing well with on pace placings over 1m and 1 ¼m after his 1m maiden win at Ruakaka. Can add some value here. ESCAPE ROOM (9) built nicely with close top4 finishes at this trip before breaking through over 1 ?m at Taupo last start. Obviously up in class but seldom far away.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
12	Second run back. First-up after four months 4th of 15 at this track on September 19 over 7 ½f, on a slow track, 4 len behind Rob's Mistake with 125lbs at $3.80. Previously second-up favourite, came from midfield and won by 1.75 len in a F&M Mdn-Sw at Matamata on May 13 over 1m in soft going defeating More Bliss with 127lbs at $5.40. Rates highly and expected to improve sharply. 1st Pick 12 Luvabeel Jockey: Michael Mcnab Trainer: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson J: Michael Mcnab T: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson	138	-	-	-	19%	9/2
Analysis Second run back. First-up after four months 4th of 15 at this track on September 19 over 7 ½f, on a slow track, 4 len behind Rob's Mistake with 125lbs at $3.80. Previously second-up favourite, came from midfield and won by 1.75 len in a F&M Mdn-Sw at Matamata on May 13 over 1m in soft going defeating More Bliss with 127lbs at $5.40. Rates highly and expected to improve sharply.
4	Third-up today and placed third-up previously. First-up 13th of 16 at this track on September 5 over 1m, on a slow track, 11 len behind Allaces carrying 128lbs at $22.10. Second run from a spell 5th of 14 at Te Rapa on September 25 over 1m, 1.75 len behind Uptown with 131lbs at $8.40. Ready to show his best. 2nd Pick 4 Fastdeeldun Jockey: Craig Grylls Trainer: Stephen Marsh J: Craig Grylls T: Stephen Marsh	102	-	-	-	8%	12/1
Analysis Third-up today and placed third-up previously. First-up 13th of 16 at this track on September 5 over 1m, on a slow track, 11 len behind Allaces carrying 128lbs at $22.10. Second run from a spell 5th of 14 at Te Rapa on September 25 over 1m, 1.75 len behind Uptown with 131lbs at $8.40. Ready to show his best.
8	At the latest run 4th of 14 at Matamata on October 3 over 7f, slow going 2 len behind Vanitygirl with 130lbs at $7.60. The start before that got back early 5th of 9 at Te Rapa on September 13 over 6 ½f, on rain affected going, 4 len behind Tiantai carrying 130lbs at $4.60. Terrific chance to return to form. 3rd Pick 8 Victor Tango Jockey: Warren Kennedy Trainer: David Greene J: Warren Kennedy T: David Greene	95	-	-	-	14%	13/2
Analysis At the latest run 4th of 14 at Matamata on October 3 over 7f, slow going 2 len behind Vanitygirl with 130lbs at $7.60. The start before that got back early 5th of 9 at Te Rapa on September 13 over 6 ½f, on rain affected going, 4 len behind Tiantai carrying 130lbs at $4.60. Terrific chance to return to form.

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