NZ - Ellerslie - Race 8

Thoroughbred

11 Runners

OPEN

Turf

SOFT 5

68.3K

VIEW

Verdict

EL VENCEDOR (1) tried hard and was runner-up in the G1 Livermol Stakes here in his penultimate start, and then was too strong off the front in the G3 Balmerino Stakes on this track just over 3 weeks ago. Dropping back to a mile should be a problem now that he is fully fit, and he should be too good again. MEANINGFUL STAR (2) was a touch unlucky not to have won his last start in the G2 Tauranga Stakes a fortnight ago. He was less than a length from the winner here before that, and looks to be the only threat to the top pick if there is to be one. HABANA (4) ran on late here last start, and even though he has been a touch disappointing this prep, he has found the right sort of race to bounce back into some decent form again. Include in all combinations. MARY SHAN (9) was back to her best when producing a big finish to score at Tauranga 2 weeks ago over 7f. She does prefer some cut in the ground, and can figure in the top 3 again. YOU SAY D'ORSAY (7) is a top 4 hope at value here.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Recent form sound. At the latest run favourite, tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by 2.5 len at this track G3 Balmerino Stakes November 4 over 1 ¼m on a soft track defeating Diamond Jak carrying 130lbs at $1.50. Before that held ground to the line 2nd of 9 at this track in the G1 Livamol Classic on October 18 over 1 ¼m, 5.5 len behind Waitak carrying 130lbs at $2.50. Hard to fault and can go on with it. 1st Pick 1 El Vencedor Jockey: Wiremu Pinn Trainer: Stephen Marsh J: Wiremu Pinn T: Stephen Marsh	149	-	-	-	58%	8/11
Analysis Recent form sound. At the latest run favourite, tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by 2.5 len at this track G3 Balmerino Stakes November 4 over 1 ¼m on a soft track defeating Diamond Jak carrying 130lbs at $1.50. Before that held ground to the line 2nd of 9 at this track in the G1 Livamol Classic on October 18 over 1 ¼m, 5.5 len behind Waitak carrying 130lbs at $2.50. Hard to fault and can go on with it.
2	Racing well recently. At the latest run made ground from midfield, 2nd of 10 at Tauranga in the G2 Tauranga Stakes on November 15 over 7f, slow going nose behind Agera with 130lbs at $6.80. The start before that came from midfield, 2nd of 11 at this track on October 25 over 1m, slow going 0.8 len behind The Odyssey with 131lbs at $12.50. Huge chance in this line-up based on last run. 2nd Pick 2 Meaningful Star Jockey: Matt Cartwright Trainer: Bruce Wallace & Grant Cooksley J: Matt Cartwright T: Bruce Wallace & Grant Cooksley	112	-	-	-	15%	6/1
Analysis Racing well recently. At the latest run made ground from midfield, 2nd of 10 at Tauranga in the G2 Tauranga Stakes on November 15 over 7f, slow going nose behind Agera with 130lbs at $6.80. The start before that came from midfield, 2nd of 11 at this track on October 25 over 1m, slow going 0.8 len behind The Odyssey with 131lbs at $12.50. Huge chance in this line-up based on last run.
4	Most recently 9th of 13 at this track on November 4 over 7 ½f, on a slow track, 5 len behind Cannon Hill with 137lbs at $23.60. The start before that raced behind the speed prior to fading 11th of 14 at Te Rapa in the G1 Howden Mile on September 27 over 1m, in the wet, 9 len behind Waitak with 130lbs at $41.10. Give another chance. 3rd Pick 4 Habana Jockey: Warren Kennedy Trainer: Lance Noble J: Warren Kennedy T: Lance Noble	105	-	-	-	9%	11/1
Analysis Most recently 9th of 13 at this track on November 4 over 7 ½f, on a slow track, 5 len behind Cannon Hill with 137lbs at $23.60. The start before that raced behind the speed prior to fading 11th of 14 at Te Rapa in the G1 Howden Mile on September 27 over 1m, in the wet, 9 len behind Waitak with 130lbs at $41.10. Give another chance.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Tack

The equipment the horse wears, including saddle and bridle. A jockey typically has their own racing saddle, placed on each horse they ride just before the race.

Fractions

The times recorded during the race; with timing starting just past the gate or when the gates open, then parroted for the quarter, half, three-quarters etc. Used as an indication of ability and speed.

Colt

A male horse that is four years of age or under.