NZ - Ellerslie - Race 8

Thoroughbred

14 Runners

6.5f

OPEN

Turf

SOFT 5

37.5K

VIEW

Verdict

YALDI (13) burst through late when finishing third here in his penultimate start, and then was not too far away in the G3 King's Plate 4 weeks ago over 6f on this track. He drops a further 4lbs, and though he has not won for some time, he has found the right race here to break his drought. MASTER FAY (1) made a welcome return to the winner's circle at Pukekohe last time out, and he is meeting a similar field here. He is very handy on his day, and he can repeat the dose. CANNON HILL (2) got back and flashed home late against the pattern last start. Each way value. I'M ALL IN (4) fought on well enough in the G3 King's Plate here 4 weeks ago, and he should be very competitive in this. Each way. ESPADAS (14) made up a lot of ground late at Pukekohe last start, and was not far off the fourth pick in the same G3 race before that. He has had a gear change since then and is worth including in all top 4 combos.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
13	Last start 6th of 9 at this track in the G3 King's Plate on March 7 over 6f, 4 len behind Sweynesday with 123lbs at $30.40. Before that ran on from midfield, 3rd of 15 at this track on February 21 over 7f, slow going 0.9 len behind Bellarista carrying 131lbs at $8.70. Can atone. 1st Pick 13 Yaldi Jockey: Michael Mcnab Trainer: Andrew Forsman J: Michael Mcnab T: Andrew Forsman	163	-	-	-	34%
Analysis Last start 6th of 9 at this track in the G3 King's Plate on March 7 over 6f, 4 len behind Sweynesday with 123lbs at $30.40. Before that ran on from midfield, 3rd of 15 at this track on February 21 over 7f, slow going 0.9 len behind Bellarista carrying 131lbs at $8.70. Can atone.
8	Most recently ran last of 14 at Tauranga in the G2 Japan Trophy on March 14 over 1m, on rain affected going, 15 len behind Omega Boy carrying 121lbs at $20.90. The run before that 4th of 9 at Otaki on February 21 over 1m, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind Freddie Time carrying 121lbs at $8.30. Can bounce back. Certainly worth another chance. 2nd Pick 8 Super Photon Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Stephen Marsh J: Non Runner T: Stephen Marsh	82	-	-	-	6%	Scratched
Analysis Most recently ran last of 14 at Tauranga in the G2 Japan Trophy on March 14 over 1m, on rain affected going, 15 len behind Omega Boy carrying 121lbs at $20.90. The run before that 4th of 9 at Otaki on February 21 over 1m, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind Freddie Time carrying 121lbs at $8.30. Can bounce back. Certainly worth another chance.
10	Last start 3rd of 8 at Wanganui on March 14 over 6 ¾f, slow going 0.2 len behind Bedtime Story carrying 122lbs at $5. The start before that 5th of 15 at this track on February 21 over 7f, slow going 1.4 len behind Bellarista with 133lbs at $6.30. Rates highly and can measure up. 3rd Pick 10 Old Bill Bone Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Cody Cole J: Non Runner T: Cody Cole	83	-	-	-	13%	Scratched
Analysis Last start 3rd of 8 at Wanganui on March 14 over 6 ¾f, slow going 0.2 len behind Bedtime Story carrying 122lbs at $5. The start before that 5th of 15 at this track on February 21 over 7f, slow going 1.4 len behind Bellarista with 133lbs at $6.30. Rates highly and can measure up.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Scratch

A horse is a scratch when injury or other necessity causes it to be withdrawn from the race.

State-Bred

A horse bred in a particular state and thus eligible to race in restricted state-bred races. These can be anything from maiden races to stakes events.

Main Track Only

A horse entered for main track only (MTO) is one hoping the weather forecast or track conditions will move the race off the turf course and onto the main track. They are scratched the morning of the race if the conditions stay dry.