NZ - Ellerslie - Race 7

Thoroughbred

12 Runners

5.5f

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 5

31.3K

VIEW

Verdict

MISS FLADGATE (10) had needed time to mature, and she has really hit her straps this season, with a second fresh up, followed by a pair of big BM65 wins on this track. She won't find this much harder, and with 6lbs less to carry, the hat-trick beckons. CHARMROSE (2) is also chasing down a hat-trick of wins after winning her penultimate start fresh here, and then hanging on grimly for a narrow victory at Tauranga 2 weeks ago. She will again take some pegging back in this. SWEYNESDAY (1) is a lightly tried 5-year-old gelding who is brimming with talent. He resumes from a spell that would have done him the world of good, and looked ready to rumble when cruising home in a recent Avondale trial. He will be very hard to hold out at this level fresh up. JUDICIAL (3) is a promising type resuming with a couple of trials under his belt. Check the market moves. Can win. OSTERIA (7) lifted strongly to score by a head at Tauranga 4 weeks ago over 6 ½f. He is right in this over 5 ½f. Include.

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Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
10	Chasing a hat-trick. Last start favourite, ran on from midfield and won by 1.3 len at this track November 4 over 5 ½f on a soft track defeating Hard Roca carrying 126lbs at $2.60. Before that favourite, won by a long-neck at this track October 18 over 6f defeating Golden Wings with 125lbs at $6.30. Racing well and looks a key chance. 1st Pick 10 Miss Fladgate Jockey: Sam Weatherley Trainer: Stephen Marsh J: Sam Weatherley T: Stephen Marsh	97	-	-	-	13%	7/1
Analysis Chasing a hat-trick. Last start favourite, ran on from midfield and won by 1.3 len at this track November 4 over 5 ½f on a soft track defeating Hard Roca carrying 126lbs at $2.60. Before that favourite, won by a long-neck at this track October 18 over 6f defeating Golden Wings with 125lbs at $6.30. Racing well and looks a key chance.
2	Third-up today and placed third-up previously. Resuming won by 0.8 len at this track October 18 over 5 ½f defeating Scolera with 118lbs at $6.10. Last start won by a head at Tauranga November 15 over 6f in soft going defeating Kitty Flash with 121lbs at $8.70. Profiles nicely. Can chalk up the hat-trick. 2nd Pick 2 Charmrose Jockey: Hayley Hassman Trainer: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson J: Hayley Hassman T: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson	115	-	-	-	16%	11/2
Analysis Third-up today and placed third-up previously. Resuming won by 0.8 len at this track October 18 over 5 ½f defeating Scolera with 118lbs at $6.10. Last start won by a head at Tauranga November 15 over 6f in soft going defeating Kitty Flash with 121lbs at $8.70. Profiles nicely. Can chalk up the hat-trick.
1	Gelding returning from a spell and has won previously when first up. Finished off last campaign second of 7 at this track January 1 over 6f, soft track, a head behind Poetic Champion with 123lbs at $2.10. Previous preparation first-up favourite, won by head this track October 19 2024 over 5 ½f defeating Wind Of Change with 130lbs at $4.70. Draws ideally and is ready to run well. 3rd Pick 1 Sweynesday Jockey: Sam Mcnab Trainer: Roger James & Robert Wellwood J: Sam Mcnab T: Roger James & Robert Wellwood	101	-	-	-	25%	3/1
Analysis Gelding returning from a spell and has won previously when first up. Finished off last campaign second of 7 at this track January 1 over 6f, soft track, a head behind Poetic Champion with 123lbs at $2.10. Previous preparation first-up favourite, won by head this track October 19 2024 over 5 ½f defeating Wind Of Change with 130lbs at $4.70. Draws ideally and is ready to run well.

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