NZ - Ellerslie - Race 6

Thoroughbred

9 Runners

OPEN

Turf

SOFT 5

37.0K

VIEW

Verdict

TOP SHELF (5) charged home to get the win first-up here last month and made ground well again last time for a close 3rd in the LR Kaimai Stakes. Take beating here. HASSTOBEAWINNER (4) couldn't keep in contact with the bunch for much of the race but powered home for 4th over 6 ½f when fresh at Hastings. Has a win and placing from 2 starts this track and trip. THE PRECURSOR (8) got too far back when 1st up here last month but improved when stayed handy to win over 1 ¼m last time. Back to 1m but has a good record at the trip. SAVOIR FAIRE (6) put away after a brave 2nd in the LR Rotorua Cup over 1 ?m in May. Placed 4 of 6 first-up runs and three quiet trails have him ready to go. EL VENCEDOR (1) has won 4 G1 races but his last win was the G3 Balmerino Stakes in November 2025. Too good to drop.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
5	Third-up today and placed third-up previously. Resuming came from midfield and won by 0.8 len at this track on September 19 over 7f on a rain affected track defeating Reward Smile with 119lbs at $6.50. Last start 3rd of 14 in the LR Matamata Kaimai Stakes on October 3 over 1m, on a slow track, 1.5 len behind Astoria Brooke carrying 117lbs at $4.40. Rates highly. Winning chance. 1st Pick 5 Top Shelf Jockey: Michael Mcnab Trainer: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson J: Michael Mcnab T: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson	146	-	-	-	39%	13/8
Analysis Third-up today and placed third-up previously. Resuming came from midfield and won by 0.8 len at this track on September 19 over 7f on a rain affected track defeating Reward Smile with 119lbs at $6.50. Last start 3rd of 14 in the LR Matamata Kaimai Stakes on October 3 over 1m, on a slow track, 1.5 len behind Astoria Brooke carrying 117lbs at $4.40. Rates highly. Winning chance.
4	Second run back. First-up after four months ran on strongly from last on the turn, 4th of 8 at Hastings on September 26 over 6 ½f, slow going 4 len behind War Princess with 121lbs at $19.70. Previously second-up won by 0.7 len at this track on May 23 over 1m in soft going defeating Lupo Solitario with 121lbs at $9.40. Plenty of improvement to come. 2nd Pick 4 Hasstobeawinner Jockey: George Rooke Trainer: Roger James & Robert Wellwood J: George Rooke T: Roger James & Robert Wellwood	85	-	-	-	12%	8/1
Analysis Second run back. First-up after four months ran on strongly from last on the turn, 4th of 8 at Hastings on September 26 over 6 ½f, slow going 4 len behind War Princess with 121lbs at $19.70. Previously second-up won by 0.7 len at this track on May 23 over 1m in soft going defeating Lupo Solitario with 121lbs at $9.40. Plenty of improvement to come.
8	Third-up today and won third-up in the past. Resuming eased back early on 9th of 14 at this track on September 5 over 1m, slow going 6 len behind Monologue with 126lbs at $13.30. Second run from a spell favourite, won by 0.7 len at Matamata on October 3 over 1 ¼m on a soft track defeating Overrated carrying 133lbs at $3.10. Likely to feature. 3rd Pick 8 The Precursor Jockey: Masahiro Hashizume Trainer: Roger James & Robert Wellwood J: Masahiro Hashizume T: Roger James & Robert Wellwood	75	-	-	-	12%	8/1
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up in the past. Resuming eased back early on 9th of 14 at this track on September 5 over 1m, slow going 6 len behind Monologue with 126lbs at $13.30. Second run from a spell favourite, won by 0.7 len at Matamata on October 3 over 1 ¼m on a soft track defeating Overrated carrying 133lbs at $3.10. Likely to feature.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

State-Bred

A horse bred in a particular state and thus eligible to race in restricted state-bred races. These can be anything from maiden races to stakes events.

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Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.