NZ - Ellerslie - Race 5

Thoroughbred

19 Runners

10.4f

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 5

33.2K

VIEW

Verdict

HEY DANA (15) looked to be really good when winning on debut, and her 3 starts since then have been mixed, but in stakes company, including a last start eighth here a month ago. She has the pole position this time and can take this out. RELIABLE SQUEEZE (14) won a good race here in her penultimate start, and then was beaten by a wide gate and a tough trip at Trentham 2 weeks ago. Allow her another chance in this. LEAVE A LIGHT ON (11) set the pace, and gave a good kick before being claimed late here over a mile a month ago, finishing sixth. If she can find a handy spot from a wide gate, then she will be an each-way threat over a more suitable trip. GIPPSY GOD (1) has been holding his form since winning at Taupo in the spring. He was runner-up as the favourite at Ruakaka just over 3 weeks ago, and he can figure in the top 4 again. PURE BARS (9) was a deserved maiden winner at Ruakaka nearly 2 weeks ago. He has a future over a middle-distance, and he can repeat the dose.

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Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
15	Comes here off a 30-day let-up. Last start raced behind the speed prior to fading 8th of 12 at this track in the G2 Sir Patrick Hogan (Royal) Stakes on January 1 over 1 ¼m, on a slow track, 3.5 len behind Ohope Wins with 125lbs at $17.30. The start before that 6th of 13 at Te Rapa on December 20 over 1m, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind Rambling On with 122lbs at $6.70. Tough to beat if near her best. 1st Pick 15 Hey Dana Jockey: Warren Kennedy Trainer: Lance Noble J: Warren Kennedy T: Lance Noble	189	-	-	-	13%	7/1
Analysis Comes here off a 30-day let-up. Last start raced behind the speed prior to fading 8th of 12 at this track in the G2 Sir Patrick Hogan (Royal) Stakes on January 1 over 1 ¼m, on a slow track, 3.5 len behind Ohope Wins with 125lbs at $17.30. The start before that 6th of 13 at Te Rapa on December 20 over 1m, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind Rambling On with 122lbs at $6.70. Tough to beat if near her best.
14	Most recently 10th of 16 at Trentham on January 17 over 1 5/16m, on a slow track, 5 len behind Enterprise Gem with 126lbs at $6.30. The start before that came from midfield and won by 0.5 len at this track December 26 over 1 5/16m on a rain affected track defeating Toruk Makto carrying 121lbs at $7.50. Came from a wide gate and could only manage to finish tenth last time out over 1 5/16m at Trentham. 2nd Pick 14 Reliable Squeeze Jockey: Vinnie Colgan Trainer: Peter Lock J: Vinnie Colgan T: Peter Lock	105	-	-	-	12%	8/1
Analysis Most recently 10th of 16 at Trentham on January 17 over 1 5/16m, on a slow track, 5 len behind Enterprise Gem with 126lbs at $6.30. The start before that came from midfield and won by 0.5 len at this track December 26 over 1 5/16m on a rain affected track defeating Toruk Makto carrying 121lbs at $7.50. Came from a wide gate and could only manage to finish tenth last time out over 1 5/16m at Trentham.
11	Comes here off a 30-day let-up. Most recently 6th of 14 at this track on January 1 over 1m, slow going 2 len behind Up The Anti carrying 127lbs at $23.30. The start before that gave a sight but was run down late 3rd of 14 at Wanganui on November 29 over 1 ¼m, slow going 0.5 len behind Platinum Tyche carrying 126lbs at $7.20. Finds a nice race this time and looks hard to beat. 3rd Pick 11 Leave A Light On Jockey: Chris Dell Trainer: Janelle Millar J: Chris Dell T: Janelle Millar	85	-	-	-	12%	8/1
Analysis Comes here off a 30-day let-up. Most recently 6th of 14 at this track on January 1 over 1m, slow going 2 len behind Up The Anti carrying 127lbs at $23.30. The start before that gave a sight but was run down late 3rd of 14 at Wanganui on November 29 over 1 ¼m, slow going 0.5 len behind Platinum Tyche carrying 126lbs at $7.20. Finds a nice race this time and looks hard to beat.

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