NZ - Ellerslie - Race 4

Thoroughbred

9 Runners

6.5f

OPEN

Turf

SOFT 5

37.0K

VIEW

Verdict

MOSINVADER (3) has found it hard to win another race, and resumed from a spell with a bold late finish for second at Tauranga 4 weeks ago over 6 ½f. He has a superior gate this time and should not settle as far back in the field this time. On top for us. FIRST FIVE (2) fought on gamely for a narrowly beaten fourth fresh up in the Listed Legacy Lodge Stakes at Pukekohe 3 weeks ago. He is normally just as sharp second up, and with the drop down in class, he will go close to taking this out. MERCURIAL (1) had a couple of starts last winter and was put aside after failing to cope with the heavy ground. He resumes with a couple of trials under his belt, and on a firmer surface, he is expected to be very competitive in this fresh up. FROSTFAIR (5) made up some late ground when finishing fourth at Tauranga 4 weeks ago. She is peaking at the right time, and she has won twice on this track in the past. Each way value here. POUR THE WINE (4) was close up in fifth in G3 company last start.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
3	Second-up. First-up after six months 2nd of 12 at Tauranga on November 1 over 6 ½f, on a slow track, 0.5 len behind Glamour Tycoon carrying 119lbs at $8.40. Previously second-up ran on strongly from last on the turn, 3rd of 14 at this track in the LR Aotearoa Clssc on January 25 over 1m, on a slow track, 2 len behind Orchestral with 127lbs at $37.20. Winning chance with that run under the belt. 1st Pick 3 Mosinvader Jockey: Matt Cartwright Trainer: Lance O'sullivan & Andrew Scott J: Matt Cartwright T: Lance O'sullivan & Andrew Scott	189	-	-	-	23%	7/2
Analysis Second-up. First-up after six months 2nd of 12 at Tauranga on November 1 over 6 ½f, on a slow track, 0.5 len behind Glamour Tycoon carrying 119lbs at $8.40. Previously second-up ran on strongly from last on the turn, 3rd of 14 at this track in the LR Aotearoa Clssc on January 25 over 1m, on a slow track, 2 len behind Orchestral with 127lbs at $37.20. Winning chance with that run under the belt.
2	Second-up. First-up after seven months 4th of 8 at Pukekohe in the LR WaikRC Sprint Handicap on November 8 over 6f, neck behind Force Of Nature with 117lbs at $11.80. Previously second-up 3rd of 7 at Tauranga on January 10 over 7f, 1.5 len behind Leroy Brown carrying 127lbs at $8.70. Fitter for that hitout and is sure to be very competitive. 2nd Pick 2 First Five Jockey: Wiremu Pinn Trainer: David Greene J: Wiremu Pinn T: David Greene	107	-	-	-	14%	13/2
Analysis Second-up. First-up after seven months 4th of 8 at Pukekohe in the LR WaikRC Sprint Handicap on November 8 over 6f, neck behind Force Of Nature with 117lbs at $11.80. Previously second-up 3rd of 7 at Tauranga on January 10 over 7f, 1.5 len behind Leroy Brown carrying 127lbs at $8.70. Fitter for that hitout and is sure to be very competitive.
1	Gelding returning from a spell and has won previously when first up. Finished off last campaign sixth of 8 at Ruakaka July 12 over 7f, on heavy track, 8 len behind Reward Smile carrying 125lbs at $7.60. Previously first up, second last in a small field at Te Rapa June 14 over 6f, on rain affected going, 6 len behind Twain carrying 127lbs at $15.40. Expected to feature. 3rd Pick 1 Mercurial Jockey: Sam Mcnab Trainer: Stephen Marsh J: Sam Mcnab T: Stephen Marsh	108	-	-	-	7%	15/1
Analysis Gelding returning from a spell and has won previously when first up. Finished off last campaign sixth of 8 at Ruakaka July 12 over 7f, on heavy track, 8 len behind Reward Smile carrying 125lbs at $7.60. Previously first up, second last in a small field at Te Rapa June 14 over 6f, on rain affected going, 6 len behind Twain carrying 127lbs at $15.40. Expected to feature.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Exacta

A bet selecting the first and second horses in a race in the correct order. An exacta box refers to paying a little more to ensure they can finish in either order.

Lasix

A medication for the treatment of bleeding in horses that is legal in North America, but not all worldwide jurisdictions.

Show Wager

Betting on a horse to finish in the first three spots, which pays out the same whether they win or run second or third.