NZ - Ascot Park - Race 5

Thoroughbred

12 Runners

11f

Benchmark

Turf

HEAVY 10

11.8K

VIEW

Verdict

STRONG (5) had been racing well before a poor run at Riverton 15 days ago, where he probably did not cope with a 7-day backup. He has a handy record on this track, and the way that his stable is going at the moment, he can make amends. Each way. MAMAEA (1) has improved her form recently by racing a lot more handy to the pace than usual. A wet track is the key, and she is good enough to take this out. ENDEAN AFFAIR (8) has been mixing her form since relocating to the South Island, and she will be having her first run over a middle distance this prep, which could well be the key to her finding some more consistent form. Stick with her. MONTE KHAN (10) may have been a run short last start, and he will be a lot sharper with less than 2 weeks between his runs. He gets a nice swing in his draw, and he is expected to bounce straight back into the money. LILY OF THE VALLEY (9) is impossible to catch, but she saves her best for her home track here, and this race is not hard. Each way value.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
5	At the latest run 10th of 14 at Riverton on April 4 over 1 5/16m, on a slow track, 13 len behind Imperative carrying 127lbs at $5.50. The run before that 4th of 14 at Wingatui on March 27 over 1m, on a slow track, 0.6 len behind Snow Brainer carrying 127lbs at $4.70. Better than that last run suggests. 1st Pick 5 Strong Jockey: Billy Jacobson Trainer: Bruce Tapper J: Billy Jacobson T: Bruce Tapper	108	-	-	-	19%
Analysis At the latest run 10th of 14 at Riverton on April 4 over 1 5/16m, on a slow track, 13 len behind Imperative carrying 127lbs at $5.50. The run before that 4th of 14 at Wingatui on March 27 over 1m, on a slow track, 0.6 len behind Snow Brainer carrying 127lbs at $4.70. Better than that last run suggests.
1	Recent form sound. Most recently held ground to the line 3rd of 13 at Riverton on April 6 over 1 5/16m, on a slow track, 1.1 len behind Prince Alby with 117lbs at $6.90. The start before that 4th of 14 at Riverton on April 4 over 1 5/16m, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Imperative carrying 121lbs at $6.30. Looks tough to beat in this line-up. 2nd Pick 1 Mamaea Jockey: Kendra Bakker Trainer: Kelvin Tyler J: Kendra Bakker T: Kelvin Tyler	85	-	-	-	34%
Analysis Recent form sound. Most recently held ground to the line 3rd of 13 at Riverton on April 6 over 1 5/16m, on a slow track, 1.1 len behind Prince Alby with 117lbs at $6.90. The start before that 4th of 14 at Riverton on April 4 over 1 5/16m, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Imperative carrying 121lbs at $6.30. Looks tough to beat in this line-up.
8	Most recently 5th of 11 at Riverton on April 6 over 7f, on a slow track, 8 len behind Highland Fling with 118lbs at $12.80. The run before that 10th of 14 at Wingatui on March 15 over 7f, on a slow track, 5 len behind Abit Sassy with 118lbs at $6.90. Can improve again. Has ability and looks one of the major players. 3rd Pick 8 Endean Affair Jockey: Abdul Najib Trainer: Cyrille Leveque J: Abdul Najib T: Cyrille Leveque	49	-	-	-	10%
Analysis Most recently 5th of 11 at Riverton on April 6 over 7f, on a slow track, 8 len behind Highland Fling with 118lbs at $12.80. The run before that 10th of 14 at Wingatui on March 15 over 7f, on a slow track, 5 len behind Abit Sassy with 118lbs at $6.90. Can improve again. Has ability and looks one of the major players.

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