NZ - Ascot Park - Race 3

Thoroughbred

15 Runners

Maiden

Turf

HEAVY 10

11.8K

VIEW

Verdict

NEEDNOMAN (1) has gone close to breaking through for an overdue win, but she does herself no favours by settling back in her races. She has a good record on her home track, and she would only need a genuine tempo up front to be a big winning hope here. MINNIE THE MOOCHER (2) resumed with a big run for fourth, and can improve again, and SCAMPER (11) raced greenly on debut when well-found in the market, and she would have learned a lot from that experience. She will also be a big improver at value. CIAO BELLISSIMA (7) makes her South Island debut after showing some ability in her initial prep up North. She won't be a maiden for much longer, and the market will be an important guide in this. ANGEL'S ARMY (15) can still do things wrong, and the drop from 1m to 6f may help her. Include in all top 4 combos.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
3	At the latest run 6th of 12 at Wingatui on March 27 over 7f, on a slow track, 6 len behind The Hares Ears with 122lbs at $14.50. The start before that 5th of 14 at Riverton on March 8 over 6f, on heavy track, 5.5 len behind Better Shared carrying 122lbs at $3.60. Draws well and is a strong winning chance. 1st Pick 3 Nasha Mala Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Robert Dennis J: Non Runner T: Robert Dennis	77	-	-	-	9%	Scratched
Analysis At the latest run 6th of 12 at Wingatui on March 27 over 7f, on a slow track, 6 len behind The Hares Ears with 122lbs at $14.50. The start before that 5th of 14 at Riverton on March 8 over 6f, on heavy track, 5.5 len behind Better Shared carrying 122lbs at $3.60. Draws well and is a strong winning chance.
6	At the latest run 9th of 14 at Riverton on April 6 over 6f, on a slow track, 13 len behind Filter with 117lbs at $3. The race before that 2nd of 14 at Riverton on March 8 over 6f, on a wet track, 1.2 len behind Better Shared carrying 117lbs at $8.60. Has the ability and can do much better. 2nd Pick 6 Turn The Tide Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Kelly Shearing J: Non Runner T: Kelly Shearing	160	-	-	-	23%	Scratched
Analysis At the latest run 9th of 14 at Riverton on April 6 over 6f, on a slow track, 13 len behind Filter with 117lbs at $3. The race before that 2nd of 14 at Riverton on March 8 over 6f, on a wet track, 1.2 len behind Better Shared carrying 117lbs at $8.60. Has the ability and can do much better.
1	Last start 5th of 11 at Riverton on April 6 over 1m, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Great Adventure carrying 125lbs at $3.20. The start before that 6th of 14 at Riverton on April 4 over 7f, slow going 2.5 len behind Bakers Dozen with 126lbs at $6.80. Great chance to atone. 3rd Pick 1 Neednoman Jockey: Lee Callaway Trainer: Sally Mckay J: Lee Callaway T: Sally Mckay	115	-	-	-	25%
Analysis Last start 5th of 11 at Riverton on April 6 over 1m, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Great Adventure carrying 125lbs at $3.20. The start before that 6th of 14 at Riverton on April 4 over 7f, slow going 2.5 len behind Bakers Dozen with 126lbs at $6.80. Great chance to atone.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Fast

A dry dirt track that is typically an ideal racing surface.

Fractions

The times recorded during the race; with timing starting just past the gate or when the gates open, then parroted for the quarter, half, three-quarters etc. Used as an indication of ability and speed.

Sloppy

A wet racetrack condition, typically with a firm base and water settling on top.