NZ - Arawa - Race 5

Thoroughbred

11 Runners

7.8f

Benchmark

Turf

HEAVY 10

9.6K

VIEW

Verdict

ELLE MCFAB (4) has set the pace and weakened out of it in each of her 2 starts back from a spell, and should have no fitness concerns third up from a spell. She is a toff in the wet, and a form reversal is on the cards here. On top for us at a price. MORNING COCOA (5) drops back from 1 ?m for this assignment, and she has been placed on this course in the past, which is an advantage, so stick with her on an each-way basis. NOT USUAL MOANA (9) capped off some good form for a well-deserved maiden win at Te Rapa just over a month ago. She benefits from a 4lbs claim, and she has the scope to go on with the job. MARRIAGE VOWS (8) battled away fairly well for a midfield finish at Matamata last time out, and she will drop 6lbs from that run with the aid of a 9lbs claim. Each way. FINAL REASON (7) was a gritty last-stride maiden winner at Te Aroha nearly 4 weeks ago, and from a superior gate, she can measure up in this company as well. Include in all top 4 combos to be safe.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
4	Third-up today and won third-up in the past. Resuming 9th of 11 at Ellerslie on May 23 over 7f, on a slow track, 5 len behind Sweet Smile carrying 115lbs at $24.40. Second run from a spell faded in the straight 12th of 14 at Matamata on June 14 over 1m, slow going 13 len behind Pegasus carrying 128lbs at $5.30. Racing well. Likely improver who looks hard to beat. 1st Pick 4 Elle Mcfab Jockey: Rihaan Goyaram Trainer: David Greene J: Rihaan Goyaram T: David Greene	102	-	-	-	25%
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up in the past. Resuming 9th of 11 at Ellerslie on May 23 over 7f, on a slow track, 5 len behind Sweet Smile carrying 115lbs at $24.40. Second run from a spell faded in the straight 12th of 14 at Matamata on June 14 over 1m, slow going 13 len behind Pegasus carrying 128lbs at $5.30. Racing well. Likely improver who looks hard to beat.
5	Comes here off a 32-day let-up. Last start 6th of 9 at Te Rapa on May 30 over 1m, slow going 5 len behind Heza Sharp One with 127lbs at $3.80. The race before that 4th of 12 at this track on May 9 over 1m, in the wet, 2.75 len behind Whatthemansaw carrying 127lbs at $6.50. Well placed and gets her chance to break through. 2nd Pick 5 Morning Cocoa Jockey: George Rooke Trainer: Andrew Forsman J: George Rooke T: Andrew Forsman	98	-	-	-	19%
Analysis Comes here off a 32-day let-up. Last start 6th of 9 at Te Rapa on May 30 over 1m, slow going 5 len behind Heza Sharp One with 127lbs at $3.80. The race before that 4th of 12 at this track on May 9 over 1m, in the wet, 2.75 len behind Whatthemansaw carrying 127lbs at $6.50. Well placed and gets her chance to break through.
9	Recent form sound. Comes here off a 32-day let-up. Last start won by a neck at Te Rapa May 30 over 1m on a soft track defeating The Darzi carrying 120lbs at $10.10. Before that made some head-way from midfield, 3rd of 11 at Pukekohe on May 1 over 1m, slow going 3.5 len behind Why Daddy carrying 119lbs at $8.30. Looks hard to beat again. 3rd Pick 9 Not Usual Moana Jockey: Sam Mcnab Trainer: Samantha Logan J: Sam Mcnab T: Samantha Logan	109	-	-	-	17%
Analysis Recent form sound. Comes here off a 32-day let-up. Last start won by a neck at Te Rapa May 30 over 1m on a soft track defeating The Darzi carrying 120lbs at $10.10. Before that made some head-way from midfield, 3rd of 11 at Pukekohe on May 1 over 1m, slow going 3.5 len behind Why Daddy carrying 119lbs at $8.30. Looks hard to beat again.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Track Bias

The term used to identify which parts of the track or running styles are producing more winners.

Trifecta

A wager picking the first, second and third horses in the exact order. A trifecta box means paying more to ensure the horses can finish in any order in the top three spots.

Furlong

One furlong is an eighth of a mile.