AU - Muswellbrook - Race 7

Thoroughbred

19 Runners

7.5f

Quality Handicap

Turf

SOFT 5

104.5K

VIEW

Verdict

HELLSING (8) disappointed last start in the Canberra Cup when settling further back than expected and perhaps finding the inferior ground, but his prior form stacks right up after performing strongly in town under big weights. From this draw he should blend into the race beautifully and, with a few key scratchings, he looks a terrific chance to rebound. GREEN FLY (2) has returned in career-best touch this campaign, making it two on the bounce when arriving in time to claim the Canberra Cup. He does concede weight to those coming through that race, but he has more to offer fourth-up and can settle closer from a softer draw. WAR ETERNAL (7) is going better than his form suggests and should now be at peak fitness. Is another that comes through the CC and draws the A1. Bold showing anticipated. ZAPHOD (5) will be looking to pick up where he left off last prep. Two trials have him ready off a short break, though he will need a clever steer from out there. MAGNATEAR (4) will give a sight.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
8	At the latest run 10th of 13 at Canberra in the LR Nat Sprint on March 8 over 7f, slow going 4.5 len behind Green Fly carrying 119lbs at $5. The start before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 3rd of 9 at Randwick Bm88 on February 14 over 1m, 1.2 len behind Jamberoo carrying 132lbs at $4. Was too bad to be true last time and deserves another chance on best form. 1st Pick 8 Hellsing Jockey: Mitchell Bell Trainer: Annabel & Rob Archibald J: Mitchell Bell T: Annabel & Rob Archibald	231	-	-	-	25%
Analysis At the latest run 10th of 13 at Canberra in the LR Nat Sprint on March 8 over 7f, slow going 4.5 len behind Green Fly carrying 119lbs at $5. The start before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 3rd of 9 at Randwick Bm88 on February 14 over 1m, 1.2 len behind Jamberoo carrying 132lbs at $4. Was too bad to be true last time and deserves another chance on best form.
2	Chasing a hat-trick. At the latest run was well back until straightening, raced back then made ground from the turn, won by a neck at Canberra LR Nat Sprint March 8 over 7f in soft going defeating Ducasse carrying 120lbs at $5.50. The run before that won by 0.8 len at Eagle Farm Hcp February 14 over 7f on a soft track defeating John Rambo carrying 132lbs at $5. In career-best touch and can add another Cup to the resume. 2nd Pick 2 Green Fly Jockey: Dylan Gibbons Trainer: Anthony & Sam Freedman J: Dylan Gibbons T: Anthony & Sam Freedman	139	-	-	-	20%
Analysis Chasing a hat-trick. At the latest run was well back until straightening, raced back then made ground from the turn, won by a neck at Canberra LR Nat Sprint March 8 over 7f in soft going defeating Ducasse carrying 120lbs at $5.50. The run before that won by 0.8 len at Eagle Farm Hcp February 14 over 7f on a soft track defeating John Rambo carrying 132lbs at $5. In career-best touch and can add another Cup to the resume.
7	Most recently from last on the turn 9th of 11 at Rosehill in the G2 Ajax on March 14 over 7 ½f, 4 len behind Cristal Clear carrying 117lbs at $31. Before that 5th of 13 at Canberra in the LR Nat Sprint on March 8 over 7f, slow going 2.5 len behind Green Fly carrying 120lbs at $7. Going better than his form reads and is drawn to get every chance. 3rd Pick 7 War Eternal Jockey: Regan Bayliss Trainer: Bjorn Baker J: Regan Bayliss T: Bjorn Baker	128	-	-	-	10%
Analysis Most recently from last on the turn 9th of 11 at Rosehill in the G2 Ajax on March 14 over 7 ½f, 4 len behind Cristal Clear carrying 117lbs at $31. Before that 5th of 13 at Canberra in the LR Nat Sprint on March 8 over 7f, slow going 2.5 len behind Green Fly carrying 120lbs at $7. Going better than his form reads and is drawn to get every chance.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Breeder

The owner of a horse’s dam – or mother - at the time a horse is foaled.

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

Sloppy

A wet racetrack condition, typically with a firm base and water settling on top.