AU - Muswellbrook - Race 4

Thoroughbred

8 Runners

6.4f

OPEN

Turf

GOOD 4

20.9K

VIEW

Verdict

NOVA CENTAURI (4) profiles as the horse to beat after driving home to win a Benchmark 74 at Scone by 2.6L as favourite. Her runs either side of the G3 Tibbie Stakes were superb and despite coming back in trip, she can repeat the dose with a repeat of her latest figures. HELLCIBELL (2) is the immediate danger off a neck second in BM82 grade at Tamworth and her 6 ?f record is a major asset, particularly with proven track-and-trip form. Bounced back last start on the quick turnaround and can go one better this time without surprising. NAVY STEEL (3) was disappointing behind Nova Centauri at Scone, but the weight drop, quick turnaround give him a genuine rebound case. IMATRUESTAR (1) is the fresh runner to respect, returning from a long absence after a Taree trial win. Drawn well and is worth keeping safe. UNREACHABLE (7) gets a big chance to correct her recent form in this race.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
4	Powered over the top to beat Alabama Blitz by two and a half lengths in a Benchmark 74 at Scone, having been sent out favourite and settling rearward before producing the best late work. That came straight after a G3 Tibbie Stakes run that was too strong a task, so this is a far more suitable level. Botled in last start and looks the one to beat again as she drops in weight. 1st Pick 4 Nova Centauri Jockey: Adam Farragher Trainer: Rodney Northam J: Adam Farragher T: Rodney Northam	180	-	-	-	48%	11/10
Analysis Powered over the top to beat Alabama Blitz by two and a half lengths in a Benchmark 74 at Scone, having been sent out favourite and settling rearward before producing the best late work. That came straight after a G3 Tibbie Stakes run that was too strong a task, so this is a far more suitable level. Botled in last start and looks the one to beat again as she drops in weight.
2	Went within a neck of Night Fighter in a Benchmark 82 at Tamworth a week ago, a sharp rebound from her wide, no-cover failure over 4 ½f at Newcastle. She is a proven track-and-trip winner, handles soft ground and remains race-fit on the quick turnaround. Better run last time out and can go one better without surprising. 2nd Pick 2 Hellcibell Jockey: Rory Hutchings Trainer: Brett & Georgie Cavanough J: Rory Hutchings T: Brett & Georgie Cavanough	194	-	-	-	25%	3/1
Analysis Went within a neck of Night Fighter in a Benchmark 82 at Tamworth a week ago, a sharp rebound from her wide, no-cover failure over 4 ½f at Newcastle. She is a proven track-and-trip winner, handles soft ground and remains race-fit on the quick turnaround. Better run last time out and can go one better without surprising.
3	Has to be assessed on trust after tiring badly in the Benchmark 74 won by Nova Centauri at Scone, where he was second last and beaten over 12 lengths at long odds. The quick backup, drop to 122lbs and strong record at this venue are genuine positives, while his Tuncurry fifth two back was sound enough. Folded badly behind Nova Centauri last time out but the drop in trip can see him return to form. 3rd Pick 3 Navy Steel Jockey: Mikayla Weir Trainer: Brett & Georgie Cavanough J: Mikayla Weir T: Brett & Georgie Cavanough	135	-	-	-	13%	7/1
Analysis Has to be assessed on trust after tiring badly in the Benchmark 74 won by Nova Centauri at Scone, where he was second last and beaten over 12 lengths at long odds. The quick backup, drop to 122lbs and strong record at this venue are genuine positives, while his Tuncurry fifth two back was sound enough. Folded badly behind Nova Centauri last time out but the drop in trip can see him return to form.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Across the Board

Refers to betting on a horse to finish first, second, and third to cover any of those scenarios happening during a race

Bobble/Stumble

A slip or a duck from a horse trying to leave the starting gates, often caused by the surface giving way under the feet. This can range from a mild misstep to a stumble down to their knees.

Also Eligible

A horse that is entered but does not draw into the body of the field due to too many entries, and thus is not permitted to start unless there are enough scratches to shrink the field size.