AU - Launceston - Race 1

Thoroughbred

12 Runners

Maiden

Turf

SOFT 5

17.4K

VIEW

Verdict

A mediocre maiden to kick things off. TIMELY NEEDS (5) has been in the money at five of his ten runs and won't get a better chance than this to grab an overdue win. Raced just off the pace then worked home well for third when resuming over this course and distance a fortnight ago. Races well here and on his best form he looks a bit better than these. SHINES DISCREETLY (3) is yet to find the frame in ten starts but his two most recent efforts have been encouraging. Finished around a length behind Timely Needs when they clashed here two weeks ago. Draws a better gate this evening so expect him to be competitive again. AWESOME ORPHAN (7) backs up seven days after making a little late ground to finish sixth over 5 ½f here. Likely improver out to this more suitable journey. TIMMIE LAD (6) returns from a ten-month spell. Showed glimpses of ability in the maiden campaign. Two recent trials should have him up to the mark. ONE STAR DREAM (1) is a market watch off a two-year absence.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
5	Second-up. First-up after three months raced on the pace when 3rd of 9 in a Mdn-Sw at this track on September 25 over 7f, 1.75 len behind Unfiltered with 129lbs at $7. Previously second-up 4th of 8 in a Mdn-Sw at Hobart on May 24 over 6f, on a slow track, 3 len behind Geegees Ace carrying 129lbs at $3.90. Has had a few chances but this looks a great opportunity to break through. 1st Pick 5 Timely Needs Jockey: Chloe Wells Trainer: Stuart Gandy J: Chloe Wells T: Stuart Gandy	224	-	-	-	23%	7/2
Analysis Second-up. First-up after three months raced on the pace when 3rd of 9 in a Mdn-Sw at this track on September 25 over 7f, 1.75 len behind Unfiltered with 129lbs at $7. Previously second-up 4th of 8 in a Mdn-Sw at Hobart on May 24 over 6f, on a slow track, 3 len behind Geegees Ace carrying 129lbs at $3.90. Has had a few chances but this looks a great opportunity to break through.
3	Last start 5th of 9 in a Mdn-Sw at this track on September 25 over 7f, 2.75 len behind Unfiltered with 129lbs at $10. The race before that 4th of 7 in a Mdn-Sw at Devonport Synthetic on September 9 over 1 m, 1.5 len behind Nicalbi carrying 129lbs at $4.60. Rates highly in this line-up and can run a much better race. 2nd Pick 3 Shines Discreetly Jockey: Erica Byrne Burke Trainer: Matthew Brown J: Erica Byrne Burke T: Matthew Brown	135	-	-	-	27%	11/4
Analysis Last start 5th of 9 in a Mdn-Sw at this track on September 25 over 7f, 2.75 len behind Unfiltered with 129lbs at $10. The race before that 4th of 7 in a Mdn-Sw at Devonport Synthetic on September 9 over 1 m, 1.5 len behind Nicalbi carrying 129lbs at $4.60. Rates highly in this line-up and can run a much better race.
7	Last start 6th of 10 in a Mdn-Sw at this track on October 2 over 5 ½f, slow going 2.5 len behind Gilly's Boy carrying 125lbs at $14. The start before that 2nd of 7 in a Mdn-Sw at Devonport Synthetic on September 9 over 5 ¾f, 1.3 len behind Out Of The Sphere with 125lbs at $9.50. In the right race this time and is definitely worth including. 3rd Pick 7 Awesome Orphan Jockey: Anthony Darmanin Trainer: Michael Trinder J: Anthony Darmanin T: Michael Trinder	85	-	-	-	16%	11/2
Analysis Last start 6th of 10 in a Mdn-Sw at this track on October 2 over 5 ½f, slow going 2.5 len behind Gilly's Boy carrying 125lbs at $14. The start before that 2nd of 7 in a Mdn-Sw at Devonport Synthetic on September 9 over 5 ¾f, 1.3 len behind Out Of The Sphere with 125lbs at $9.50. In the right race this time and is definitely worth including.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

State-Bred

A horse bred in a particular state and thus eligible to race in restricted state-bred races. These can be anything from maiden races to stakes events.

Fast

A dry dirt track that is typically an ideal racing surface.

Filly

A female horse that is four years of age or under.