AU - Kilcoy - Race 4

Thoroughbred

14 Runners

7.5f

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 6

14.2K

VIEW

Verdict

THE MESSIAH (6) took a while but was off the mark with a dominant maiden win last time over 1 m at Beaudesert. Was given a peach by Lloyd, quickly camping the fence before exploding in the straight to win by more than five lengths. Lloyd aboard again but draw sthe fence so won't spend a penny. But now the penny has dropped can go right on with it. Has more upside than most and looks hard to hold out again. CONEY ISLAND BABY (2) returned over 6f at Warwick and went close, finishing a half-length third. Fitter for it and the extra trip is a plus. Best figures are when second-up. Looks the main threat. MEKANIC (9) has placed two of last three. This harder but nice weight drop.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
6	Last start ran on from midfield and scored a big 5.5 len win at Beaudesert Mdn April 25 over 1 m on a soft track defeating Sonic Flyer carrying 125lbs at $2.90. The run before that 2nd in a small field at Grafton Super Mdn-Sw on April 19 over 7f, 2 len behind Lofty Macsporran with 121lbs at $26. Has more upside than most and will be hard to hold out. 1st Pick 6 The Messiah Jockey: Jaden Lloyd Trainer: Gregory Cornish J: Jaden Lloyd T: Gregory Cornish	102	-	-	-	39%
Analysis Last start ran on from midfield and scored a big 5.5 len win at Beaudesert Mdn April 25 over 1 m on a soft track defeating Sonic Flyer carrying 125lbs at $2.90. The run before that 2nd in a small field at Grafton Super Mdn-Sw on April 19 over 7f, 2 len behind Lofty Macsporran with 121lbs at $26. Has more upside than most and will be hard to hold out.
1	Dual acceptor. Last start second last of 12 at Gold Coast Poly Bm65 on May 16 over 7 ¾f, 20 len behind Five Rings carrying 119lbs at $61. Before that rolled along in front then was edged out late 2nd of 9 at Sunshine Coast Poly Bm55 on May 1 over 7f, nose behind State A Fact with 133lbs at $9. Prepared to forget last start and with change of rider is worth another try. 2nd Pick 1 What Did You Say Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: James Moore J: Non Runner T: James Moore	134	-	-	-	1%	Scratched
Analysis Dual acceptor. Last start second last of 12 at Gold Coast Poly Bm65 on May 16 over 7 ¾f, 20 len behind Five Rings carrying 119lbs at $61. Before that rolled along in front then was edged out late 2nd of 9 at Sunshine Coast Poly Bm55 on May 1 over 7f, nose behind State A Fact with 133lbs at $9. Prepared to forget last start and with change of rider is worth another try.
2	Dual acceptor. Second run back. First-up after three months 3rd of 13 at Warwick Cg&E 0 - 55 on May 7 over 6f, 0.6 len behind Royal Bombadier carrying 131lbs at $7. Previously second-up 2nd of 8 at Gold Coast Cl4 on November 22 over 7f, slow going 0.5 len behind Pasima with 119lbs at $41. Fitter and expected to go close. 3rd Pick 2 Coney Island Baby Jockey: Bailey Wheeler Trainer: Billy Healey J: Bailey Wheeler T: Billy Healey	113	-	-	-	50%
Analysis Dual acceptor. Second run back. First-up after three months 3rd of 13 at Warwick Cg&E 0 - 55 on May 7 over 6f, 0.6 len behind Royal Bombadier carrying 131lbs at $7. Previously second-up 2nd of 8 at Gold Coast Cl4 on November 22 over 7f, slow going 0.5 len behind Pasima with 119lbs at $41. Fitter and expected to go close.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Track Bias

The term used to identify which parts of the track or running styles are producing more winners.

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

Apprentice

A new jockey who has not ridden a certain number of winners in a specified time period.