AU - Kempsey - Race 8

Thoroughbred

18 Runners

7.2f

Benchmark

Turf

HEAVY 10

24.4K

VIEW

Verdict

NUGGET SMART (3) is the one to beat after a sound BM66 effort at Muswellbrook and a Class 2 win at Tamworth the start prior, where he beat Hinto by a length and a half. He has won twice at this distance range and the return of Aaron Bullock, who has a win and a placing from three rides on him, strengthens the case. CONTALDO (5) has not been in winning form, but he was making ground late at Port Macquarie last start, is third-up, draws barrier 1 and brings the strongest ratings profile across the past 12 months. OUTOFTHEOFFICE (7) comes through Class 2 form at Taree, where he was well back before charging home into fifth, and the class relief gives him a genuine chance if he handles the step back to around 7 ¼f better than his only prior attempt. COOL AZ ALETTA (17) had difficulty getting clear at the Beaumont last start and also struck trouble at Taree two back, so his recent margins read a little harsher than the runs themselves.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
3	Dropped out late when sixth in a BM66 at Muswellbrook last start, beaten four and a half lengths after leading into the straight, but that is stronger company than this. The start prior he won a Class 2 at Tamworth by a length and a half from Hinto, and he has two wins and two placings from eight runs at this distance. Leading chance who maps well. 1st Pick 3 Nugget Smart Jockey: Aaron Bullock Trainer: Ben Blay J: Aaron Bullock T: Ben Blay	140	-	-	-	23%	7/2
Analysis Dropped out late when sixth in a BM66 at Muswellbrook last start, beaten four and a half lengths after leading into the straight, but that is stronger company than this. The start prior he won a Class 2 at Tamworth by a length and a half from Hinto, and he has two wins and two placings from eight runs at this distance. Leading chance who maps well.
5	Comes here third-up after making solid late ground for sixth in a Class 1 at Port Macquarie, beaten just over three lengths at big odds. His run prior was plain when last behind Newy, but barrier 1, the class drop and his top-rated profile across the past 12 months give him a stronger case than the form figures suggest. Recent form is patchy, but the setup gives him a real winning platform. 2nd Pick 5 Contaldo Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Alicia Willick J: Non Runner T: Alicia Willick	177	-	-	-	6%	18/1
Analysis Comes here third-up after making solid late ground for sixth in a Class 1 at Port Macquarie, beaten just over three lengths at big odds. His run prior was plain when last behind Newy, but barrier 1, the class drop and his top-rated profile across the past 12 months give him a stronger case than the form figures suggest. Recent form is patchy, but the setup gives him a real winning platform.
7	Closed strongly from well back when fifth in a Class 2 at Taree last start, beaten just over three lengths, and that finish was better than the margin suggests. He had also been fifth there the run prior at generous odds. The trip asks something, but the class drop keeps him right in this. 3rd Pick 7 Outoftheoffice Jockey: Jenny Duggan Trainer: Paul Kelly J: Jenny Duggan T: Paul Kelly	105	-	-	-	10%	9/1
Analysis Closed strongly from well back when fifth in a Class 2 at Taree last start, beaten just over three lengths, and that finish was better than the margin suggests. He had also been fifth there the run prior at generous odds. The trip asks something, but the class drop keeps him right in this.

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