AU - Kempsey - Race 1

Thoroughbred

7 Runners

Maiden

Turf

HEAVY 10

24.4K

VIEW

Verdict

JUSTICE AND GRACE (7) makes immediate appeal on debut after winning an 4f trial at Beaumont (Newcastle), and the inside draw with Ben Looker, top-ranked for wins at this track, gives him the right profile to make a winning start. Paul Snowden's debut record is another positive pointer, with 3 wins from 8 starters. SWEET MARLENE (6) has the best recent race form after finishing second at Taree, beaten just over half a length, and her repeated 5f placings make her a genuine danger despite the long maiden record. CERANO MAGIC (2) was only beaten four lengths first-up at Taree after beginning slowly and being steadied late, so he can improve second-up, though he has to turn the tables on Sweet Marlene. TRULY GRAPHIC (4) resumes after a four-month break, having ended last campaign with a Port Macquarie placing, and the earlier Open run at Rosehill gives his form some depth for a race of this nature.

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Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
7	Makes his debut with a solid platform after winning an 4f trial at Beaumont (newcastle) last month. The inside draw is a genuine advantage for a first starter, and Ben Looker being top-ranked for wins at this track strengthens the set-up. Stable debut record is strong enough to make him the top pick. 1st Pick 7 Justice And Grace Jockey: Ben Looker Trainer: Paul Snowden J: Ben Looker T: Paul Snowden	118	-	-	-	53%	10/11
Analysis Makes his debut with a solid platform after winning an 4f trial at Beaumont (newcastle) last month. The inside draw is a genuine advantage for a first starter, and Ben Looker being top-ranked for wins at this track strengthens the set-up. Stable debut record is strong enough to make him the top pick.
6	Resumed with a strong Taree second, beaten just over half a length after travelling just off the lead and finishing well at generous odds. She has now placed ten times from 22 starts overall and seven times from twelve at around 5f, so the maiden record is the obvious reservation. The maiden record is the query, but this looks a suitable race second up. 2nd Pick 6 Sweet Marlene Jockey: Luke Rolls Trainer: Cassandra Schmidt J: Luke Rolls T: Cassandra Schmidt	208	-	-	-	27%	11/4
Analysis Resumed with a strong Taree second, beaten just over half a length after travelling just off the lead and finishing well at generous odds. She has now placed ten times from 22 starts overall and seven times from twelve at around 5f, so the maiden record is the obvious reservation. The maiden record is the query, but this looks a suitable race second up.
2	Resumed at Taree with an eighth, beaten four lengths, and that run had excuses after he was slow to begin and steadied approaching the ½f while still starting near the top of betting. The longer gap to his Grafton failure makes the first-up effort the key reference, and he did lose to Sweet Marlene there. Fitter now, but must turn the Taree form around on Sweet Marlene. 3rd Pick 2 Cerano Magic Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Karen Owen J: Non Runner T: Karen Owen	161	-	-	-	1%	1000/1
Analysis Resumed at Taree with an eighth, beaten four lengths, and that run had excuses after he was slow to begin and steadied approaching the ½f while still starting near the top of betting. The longer gap to his Grafton failure makes the first-up effort the key reference, and he did lose to Sweet Marlene there. Fitter now, but must turn the Taree form around on Sweet Marlene.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Track Bias

The term used to identify which parts of the track or running styles are producing more winners.

Scratch

A horse is a scratch when injury or other necessity causes it to be withdrawn from the race.

Dead Heat

Two or more horses finishing so close at the wire, that they were unable to be separated on a photo finish and deemed to have tied.