AU - Kembla Grange - Race 8

Thoroughbred

20 Runners

Unknown

Turf

GOOD 4

647.7K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

GRINGOTTS (1) won this race last year and going even better this prep. Anchored with the 137lbs when stormed home late to score a courageous win in the LR Big Dance at Randwick over the mile. Gets map favours and the main dangers have drawn poorly. Hard to stop. ESTADIO MESTALLA (3) tough gelding who's gone to a new level this time in. Surged late from last on the turn when a slashing sixth in the G2 The Hunter at Newcastle over 6 ½f last Saturday. Will have to pull out a similar performance again from the gate. Respect. TAVI TIME (13) drifted back further than expected and held up badly in the straight when a frustrating eighth in the LR Big Dance. Key jockey change and can take a hand in the finish with even luck. DUCASSE (18) comes right into calculations in the rain arrives. Solid effort when fifth over 1 ?m in the LR Five Diamonds at Rosehill. PALMETTO (16) back in trip and can surprise at the big odds.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Racing well recently. Last start favourite, came from midfield and won by 1.2 len at Randwick LR Big Dance November 4 over 1m on a rain affected track defeating Vivy Air with 137lbs at $3. The race before that 2nd of 17 at Rosehill Alan Brown on October 11 over 7f, 0.6 len behind Headley Grange carrying 134lbs at $3.30. Won here last year and going even better now, the not to beat. 1st Pick 1 Gringotts Jockey: Nash Rawiller Trainer: Ciaron Maher J: Nash Rawiller T: Ciaron Maher	208	-	-	-	48%	11/10
Analysis Racing well recently. Last start favourite, came from midfield and won by 1.2 len at Randwick LR Big Dance November 4 over 1m on a rain affected track defeating Vivy Air with 137lbs at $3. The race before that 2nd of 17 at Rosehill Alan Brown on October 11 over 7f, 0.6 len behind Headley Grange carrying 134lbs at $3.30. Won here last year and going even better now, the not to beat.
3	Third-up today and won third-up previously. Resuming settled well back, won by a nose at Randwick Choisir Bm100 November 4 over 5 ½f in soft going defeating Accredited carrying 139lbs at $21. Second run from a spell 6th of 16 at Newcastle in the G2 The Hunter on November 15 over 6 ½f, 2 len behind Coal Crusher with 129lbs at $26. Huge run in the Hunter and desperate for this trip despite drawing out. 2nd Pick 3 Estadio Mestalla Jockey: Adam Hyeronimus Trainer: Joseph Pride J: Adam Hyeronimus T: Joseph Pride	207	-	-	-	15%	6/1
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up previously. Resuming settled well back, won by a nose at Randwick Choisir Bm100 November 4 over 5 ½f in soft going defeating Accredited carrying 139lbs at $21. Second run from a spell 6th of 16 at Newcastle in the G2 The Hunter on November 15 over 6 ½f, 2 len behind Coal Crusher with 129lbs at $26. Huge run in the Hunter and desperate for this trip despite drawing out.
13	Most recently 8th of 20 at Randwick in the LR Big Dance on November 4 over 1m, slow going 3.5 len behind Gringotts carrying 126lbs at $10. Before that made some head-way from midfield, 5th of 17 at Rosehill Alan Brown on October 11 over 7f, 1.4 len behind Headley Grange carrying 125lbs at $26. Unlucky not to have finished in the money last start, goes close. 3rd Pick 13 Tavi Time Jockey: Tommy Berry Trainer: Kris Lees J: Tommy Berry T: Kris Lees	159	-	-	-	14%	13/2
Analysis Most recently 8th of 20 at Randwick in the LR Big Dance on November 4 over 1m, slow going 3.5 len behind Gringotts carrying 126lbs at $10. Before that made some head-way from midfield, 5th of 17 at Rosehill Alan Brown on October 11 over 7f, 1.4 len behind Headley Grange carrying 125lbs at $26. Unlucky not to have finished in the money last start, goes close.

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