AU - Kembla Grange - Race 4

Thoroughbred

10 Runners

6.5f

Maiden

Turf

GOOD 4

29.4K

VIEW

Verdict

SOMERFORD (10) settled near the pace then found the line fairly to finish fourth when resuming over 6f at Newcastle last start. Strips fitter and enjoys a lovely run from an inside gate. Great chance to break the maiden in an ordinary affair. GRAND CAROUSEL (4) did some early work after missing the kick then struggled to do it at both ends last time out over 6f at Wyong. Better placed over an extra ½f on a roomier track so watch for a spike in form. COOL AZA BREEZE (2) returned after almost a year off the scene with an encouraging third over 1½f at Goulburn recently. Sure to take a lot from that hit-out and today's trip will be more to her liking. SUPA ZENARDINI (7) hasn't fired in three runs this prep but might be worth one more chance with blinkers going on for the first time. Ex South Australian ISOTROPIC (5) returns from a 255-day break in a new stable. Betting holds the key.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
10	Second-up. First start 6th of 8 at Canberra Opalpreview on February 20 over 5f, 5.5 len behind Music Time with 120lbs at $10. Went for a break before returning 4th of 11 at Newcastle 2yo Mdn on July 11 over 6f, slow going 2.5 len behind Elstead with 123lbs at $13. Strips fitter and expected to play a key role. 1st Pick 10 Somerford Jockey: Christian Reith Trainer: Brad Widdup J: Christian Reith T: Brad Widdup	183	-	-	-	37%	7/4
Analysis Second-up. First start 6th of 8 at Canberra Opalpreview on February 20 over 5f, 5.5 len behind Music Time with 120lbs at $10. Went for a break before returning 4th of 11 at Newcastle 2yo Mdn on July 11 over 6f, slow going 2.5 len behind Elstead with 123lbs at $13. Strips fitter and expected to play a key role.
4	Third-up today. Resuming 2nd in a small field at Nowra Mdn-Sw on June 15 over 6f, on heavy track, 4 len behind Rockthevelio carrying 126lbs at $2.80. Second run from a spell 5th of 9 at Wyong Prov Mdn-Sw on July 4 over 6f, slow going 4 len behind Stability with 126lbs at $4.20. Capable of a better showing. Cherry ripe and can open her account this time. 2nd Pick 4 Grand Carousel Jockey: Lee Magorrian Trainer: Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter J: Lee Magorrian T: Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter	130	-	-	-	35%	15/8
Analysis Third-up today. Resuming 2nd in a small field at Nowra Mdn-Sw on June 15 over 6f, on heavy track, 4 len behind Rockthevelio carrying 126lbs at $2.80. Second run from a spell 5th of 9 at Wyong Prov Mdn-Sw on July 4 over 6f, slow going 4 len behind Stability with 126lbs at $4.20. Capable of a better showing. Cherry ripe and can open her account this time.
2	Dual acceptor. Third race start. First start 8th of 10 at Geelong 2yo Mdn-Sw on July 25 over 5 ¾f, on a slow track, 7 len behind Redders with 123lbs at $8.50. Returned from break held ground to the line 3rd of 7 at Goulburn Mdn on July 3 over 5 ½f, on a slow track, 3 len behind Nuns Chorus carrying 126lbs at $9.50. Fitter for that run and will be tough to beat. 3rd Pick 2 Cool Aza Breeze Jockey: Keagan Latham Trainer: Ciaron Maher J: Keagan Latham T: Ciaron Maher	122	-	-	-	15%	6/1
Analysis Dual acceptor. Third race start. First start 8th of 10 at Geelong 2yo Mdn-Sw on July 25 over 5 ¾f, on a slow track, 7 len behind Redders with 123lbs at $8.50. Returned from break held ground to the line 3rd of 7 at Goulburn Mdn on July 3 over 5 ½f, on a slow track, 3 len behind Nuns Chorus carrying 126lbs at $9.50. Fitter for that run and will be tough to beat.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Overlay

A horse going off at higher odds than his recent efforts show that he deserves.

Breeder

The owner of a horse’s dam – or mother - at the time a horse is foaled.

Track Bias

The term used to identify which parts of the track or running styles are producing more winners.