AU - Hobart - Race 6

Thoroughbred

8 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 5

17.5K

VIEW

Verdict

ALPINE THUNDER (1) led and faded fresh over 6f in similar grade, finishing sixth. Fitter and back to the sharper trip. Has the claim and will take catching. BILLIE THE GREAT (5) was a fresh-up winner then has placed in the three runs since. Long overdue and gets her chance to break through. EASTCOAST MISS (4) ran on well to place fresh then finished alongside Alpine Thunder last time. Key chance who should prove hard to beat. GEEGEES MISSILE (2) resumed in the same race and faded to finish well back. That was off a long break and has a decent second-up record. Has upside and yet to miss the frame this course and distance. NO ACCESS (8) has a light weight and will be winding up late.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Second run back. First-up after five months did the work up front then tired 6th of 9 at this track Bm68 on July 19 over 6f, slow going 3.5 len behind Captain Cam with 123lbs at $7. Previously second-up 3rd of 8 at this track Bm68 on December 5 over 5f, 2.25 len behind Popilita carrying 122lbs at $2.90. Fitter and will take catching this sharper trip. 1st Pick 1 Alpine Thunder Jockey: Bree Temple Trainer: Stuart Gandy J: Bree Temple T: Stuart Gandy	134	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Second run back. First-up after five months did the work up front then tired 6th of 9 at this track Bm68 on July 19 over 6f, slow going 3.5 len behind Captain Cam with 123lbs at $7. Previously second-up 3rd of 8 at this track Bm68 on December 5 over 5f, 2.25 len behind Popilita carrying 122lbs at $2.90. Fitter and will take catching this sharper trip.
5	Form hard to fault. At the latest run 3rd of 10 at Devonport Synthetic Cl4 Sw on July 12 over 6 ¾f, 2.5 len behind Simply Deep carrying 121lbs at $10. The start before that 2nd of 8 at Devonport Synthetic Cl4 Sw on June 28 over 5 ¾f, 0.8 len behind Wild Dancer carrying 121lbs at $3. Definite winning chance. Well placed and gets her chance to break through. 2nd Pick 5 Billie The Great Jockey: Hayley Mccarthy Trainer: Bradley Franklin J: Hayley Mccarthy T: Bradley Franklin	113	-	-	-	19%	9/2
Analysis Form hard to fault. At the latest run 3rd of 10 at Devonport Synthetic Cl4 Sw on July 12 over 6 ¾f, 2.5 len behind Simply Deep carrying 121lbs at $10. The start before that 2nd of 8 at Devonport Synthetic Cl4 Sw on June 28 over 5 ¾f, 0.8 len behind Wild Dancer carrying 121lbs at $3. Definite winning chance. Well placed and gets her chance to break through.
4	Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. First-up made ground from midfield, 3rd of 14 at this track Bm60 on July 5 over 6f, on a slow track, 3.5 len behind Sky Land carrying 129lbs at $14. Second run from a spell 5th of 9 at this track Bm68 on July 19 over 6f, slow going 3 len behind Captain Cam carrying 121lbs at $7.50. Key chance who should prove hard to beat. 3rd Pick 4 Eastcoast Miss Jockey: Anthony Darmanin Trainer: Jessie Bazan J: Anthony Darmanin T: Jessie Bazan	101	-	-	-	15%	6/1
Analysis Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. First-up made ground from midfield, 3rd of 14 at this track Bm60 on July 5 over 6f, on a slow track, 3.5 len behind Sky Land carrying 129lbs at $14. Second run from a spell 5th of 9 at this track Bm68 on July 19 over 6f, slow going 3 len behind Captain Cam carrying 121lbs at $7.50. Key chance who should prove hard to beat.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Fast

A dry dirt track that is typically an ideal racing surface.

Trifecta

A wager picking the first, second and third horses in the exact order. A trifecta box means paying more to ensure the horses can finish in any order in the top three spots.

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.