AU - Gosford - Race 5

Thoroughbred

14 Runners

Maiden

Turf

GOOD 4

29.3K

VIEW

Verdict

MADE IN ITALY (10) has the right profile to break through after a sound fifth in a Warwick Farm Mdn, where she began awkwardly, was blocked early and was still only beaten just over two lengths. Her Newcastle second two runs back reads well, and her record around 1m gives her the most reliable exposed base. KOIBITO (9) is the main danger if she rebounds from a Warwick Farm seventh, with the easier meeting, third-up timing and weight relief all in her favour. MARCH (11) has upside after a close up debut third at a big price at Illawarra Grange, beaten a neck, though 1m is new territory. Schiller sticks and not to be underestimated. DANCE WITH DESTINY (7) brings a solid place CV and the winkers go on second up. Tommy Berry takes the reins after she was a beaten favourite when second over 7 ½f at Newcastle. Will keep improving as she steps up in trip.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
10	Eases back from a metro meeting after a strong Warwick Farm Mdn fifth, beaten just over two lengths despite beginning awkwardly and being blocked early. Her Newcastle second two runs ago was another solid piece of form, and she has placed four times from five starts around 1m. Drawn well with Kerrin Mcevoy aboard and looks the one to beat. 1st Pick 10 Made In Italy Jockey: Kerrin Mcevoy Trainer: Matthew Smith J: Kerrin Mcevoy T: Matthew Smith	176	-	-	-	31%	9/4
Analysis Eases back from a metro meeting after a strong Warwick Farm Mdn fifth, beaten just over two lengths despite beginning awkwardly and being blocked early. Her Newcastle second two runs ago was another solid piece of form, and she has placed four times from five starts around 1m. Drawn well with Kerrin Mcevoy aboard and looks the one to beat.
9	Drops back from a metro meeting after finishing seventh in a Warwick Farm Mdn, beaten just under three lengths when near the top of betting and unable to finish off after leading. That run was below expectations, but her Newcastle second two starts ago behind Party Rebel was a narrow defeat as favourite. Strong rebound chance in this grade. 2nd Pick 9 Koibito Jockey: Regan Bayliss Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott J: Regan Bayliss T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott	177	-	-	-	34%	2/1
Analysis Drops back from a metro meeting after finishing seventh in a Warwick Farm Mdn, beaten just under three lengths when near the top of betting and unable to finish off after leading. That run was below expectations, but her Newcastle second two starts ago behind Party Rebel was a narrow defeat as favourite. Strong rebound chance in this grade.
11	Returns from a five-week let-up after an encouraging debut third at Illawarra Grange, where she was big odds yet tracked up and lengthened nicely to be beaten only a neck by Aladdin's Girl. The jump to around 1m is new ground, but the effort had substance and Tyler Schiller takes the ride. New to 1m, but has clear upside. 3rd Pick 11 March Jockey: Tyler Schiller Trainer: M, W & J Hawkes J: Tyler Schiller T: M, W & J Hawkes	118	-	-	-	10%	9/1
Analysis Returns from a five-week let-up after an encouraging debut third at Illawarra Grange, where she was big odds yet tracked up and lengthened nicely to be beaten only a neck by Aladdin's Girl. The jump to around 1m is new ground, but the effort had substance and Tyler Schiller takes the ride. New to 1m, but has clear upside.

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