AU - Gosford - Race 1

Thoroughbred

8 Runners

Maiden

Turf

GOOD 4

29.5K

VIEW

Verdict

BABYFACED ASSASSIN (3) eight-start maiden with his hoof on the till. Assess on his narrow defeat two-back at Hawkesbury, before jumping away slowly when a dismal seventh over 1 ³/16m at Canterbury. Ash Morgan sticks and will relish this easier contest. VELIA (2) lightly raced mare who returned a good set of figures for the new yard on resumption when fourth over 6 ½f at Kembla Grange. Gets a much better setup today and shapes as the main danger. FLYING GREY (1) even effort on debut with the 7lbs apprentice when fourth over 6 ½f at Bathurst. Should've come on with the run and senior rider engaged. No surprise to see her take a hand in the finish. O CARA MIA (6) handy mare resuming who was plagued by rain-affected tracks last prep. Proven on the provincial circuit and her two trials had merit. Blinkers off and capable of taking this out.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
3	Last start second last of 8 at Canterbury Mdn-Sw on November 19 over 1 ³/16m, 18 len behind Sweltering with 130lbs at $19. Before that 2nd of 8 at Hawkesbury Super Mdn-Sw on November 8 over 1m, nose behind Villa Castina with 126lbs at $31. Sharp improver back to this trip. 1st Pick 3 Babyfaced Assassin Jockey: Ashley Morgan Trainer: Gary Portelli J: Ashley Morgan T: Gary Portelli	185	-	-	-	17%
Analysis Last start second last of 8 at Canterbury Mdn-Sw on November 19 over 1 ³/16m, 18 len behind Sweltering with 130lbs at $19. Before that 2nd of 8 at Hawkesbury Super Mdn-Sw on November 8 over 1m, nose behind Villa Castina with 126lbs at $31. Sharp improver back to this trip.
2	Second run back. First-up after six months 4th of 12 at Kembla Grange F&M Mdn on November 15 over 6 ½f, 2.25 len behind Aura carrying 130lbs at $12. Previously second-up 7th of 10 at Kilmore Mdn-Sw on April 5 over 7 ¼f, 2.25 len behind Bavette carrying 126lbs at $26. Solid return and a win looks imminent. 2nd Pick 2 Velia Jockey: Grant Buckley Trainer: Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter J: Grant Buckley T: Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter	114	-	-	-	34%
Analysis Second run back. First-up after six months 4th of 12 at Kembla Grange F&M Mdn on November 15 over 6 ½f, 2.25 len behind Aura carrying 130lbs at $12. Previously second-up 7th of 10 at Kilmore Mdn-Sw on April 5 over 7 ¼f, 2.25 len behind Bavette carrying 126lbs at $26. Solid return and a win looks imminent.
1	At debut, 4th of 9 at Bathurst Mdn on November 15 over 6 ½f, slow going 0.6 len behind Casino Sting carrying 118lbs at $6.50. Excellent debut and sure to be thereabouts. 3rd Pick 1 Flying Grey Jockey: Christian Reith Trainer: Brad Widdup J: Christian Reith T: Brad Widdup	140	-	-	-	5%
Analysis At debut, 4th of 9 at Bathurst Mdn on November 15 over 6 ½f, slow going 0.6 len behind Casino Sting carrying 118lbs at $6.50. Excellent debut and sure to be thereabouts.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Synthetic Surface

A racing surface comprised of silica sand and fibers, such as recycled carpet or spandex. The mixture is then sealed with wax.

Minus Pool

A pari-mutuel pool – typically a show pool - where one horse is so heavily bet that after deductions there is not enough money left to cover the prescribed minimum on each bet.

Bug

An apprentice jockey.