AU - Eagle Farm - Race 8

Thoroughbred

21 Runners

6.5f

OPEN

Turf

SOFT 7

712.8K

VIEW

Verdict

Cracking race. Lightly raced six-year-old SPLASH BACK (14) accelerated in great style in the heavy going to comfortably take out the Victory Stakes here at this trip four weeks ago. Meets a deeper field this time but she remarkably keeps improving so this is not beyond her at a juicy quote. JIMMYSSTAR (1) was backed with real confidence in the 10,000 at Doomben a fortnight ago but again failed to deliver although he worked home when it was all over. Eagle Farm is a far more suitable circuit so he should be given one more chance. LINEBACKER (11) was given a curious ride in the Luskin Star at Scone recently when $2.25, drifting back a lot further than anticipated before rallying late to finish third over 6 ½f. Hard one to catch but good enough if at his best. The progressive NAPOLEONIC (16) ran on in great style in the 10,000 to grab third. Fitter and the long run home is a tick. Old marvel ROTHFIRE (2) cannot be ruled out as his landmark win last start came under adversity.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
14	Third-up today and won third-up in the past. Resuming got back early 7th of 12 at Randwick in the G2 Sapphire on April 11 over 6f, 1.5 len behind In Flight with 126lbs at $7. Last start was well back until straightening, raced back then made ground from the turn, won by 1.75 len at this track G2 Victory Stakes May 2 over 6f in heavy going defeating Payline carrying 125lbs at $8.50. Profiles nicely. Progressive mare who can measure up again. 1st Pick 14 Splash Back Jockey: Jordan Childs Trainer: Grahame Begg J: Jordan Childs T: Grahame Begg	145	-	-	-	8%	13/1
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up in the past. Resuming got back early 7th of 12 at Randwick in the G2 Sapphire on April 11 over 6f, 1.5 len behind In Flight with 126lbs at $7. Last start was well back until straightening, raced back then made ground from the turn, won by 1.75 len at this track G2 Victory Stakes May 2 over 6f in heavy going defeating Payline carrying 125lbs at $8.50. Profiles nicely. Progressive mare who can measure up again.
1	Form hard to fault. Most recently 4th of 15 at Doomben in the G1 Doomben 10,000 on May 16 over 6f, on a slow track, 2.5 len behind Rothfire with 129lbs at $2.25. Before that 3rd of 13 at Randwick in the G1 All Aged on April 18 over 7f, 1.0 len behind Beiwacht with 130lbs at $5.50. Not in punters' good books at the moment but he has the talent to put these away. 2nd Pick 1 Jimmysstar Jockey: Ethan Brown Trainer: Ciaron Maher J: Ethan Brown T: Ciaron Maher	179	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Form hard to fault. Most recently 4th of 15 at Doomben in the G1 Doomben 10,000 on May 16 over 6f, on a slow track, 2.5 len behind Rothfire with 129lbs at $2.25. Before that 3rd of 13 at Randwick in the G1 All Aged on April 18 over 7f, 1.0 len behind Beiwacht with 130lbs at $5.50. Not in punters' good books at the moment but he has the talent to put these away.
11	At the latest run made some head-way from midfield, 3rd of 13 at Scone in the LR Luskinstar on May 16 over 6 ½f, 1.3 len behind Sun God carrying 130lbs at $2.25. The race before that raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 6th of 16 at Randwick in the G1 Doncaster on April 4 over 1m, slow going 7 len behind Sheza Alibi carrying 117lbs at $20. An inside draw is a big advantage. Every chance last time but worth forgiving. 3rd Pick 11 Linebacker Jockey: Ben Melham Trainer: Tom Charlton J: Ben Melham T: Tom Charlton	142	-	-	-	4%	25/1
Analysis At the latest run made some head-way from midfield, 3rd of 13 at Scone in the LR Luskinstar on May 16 over 6 ½f, 1.3 len behind Sun God carrying 130lbs at $2.25. The race before that raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 6th of 16 at Randwick in the G1 Doncaster on April 4 over 1m, slow going 7 len behind Sheza Alibi carrying 117lbs at $20. An inside draw is a big advantage. Every chance last time but worth forgiving.

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