AU - Eagle Farm - Race 7

Thoroughbred

23 Runners

11.9f

OPEN

Turf

SOFT 7

712.8K

VIEW

Verdict

The 1 ¼m Rough Habit a fortnight ago is the key form reference and it was KILMAN (1) who prevailed in the vital lead-up, leading all the way in a strong staying performance. Showed no signs of stopping so another 2f should pose no problems. Can get the job done again. PROVIDENCE (4) started favourite in the Rough Habit but gave away too much start, working home hard into third. Ran a nice race in the Victoria Derby when less seasoned. J Mac will settle closer this time and he can turn the tables. ACCIDENTAL BID (12) is a boom colt who missed a run in the SA Derby before finishing sixth to Kilman a fortnight ago. Plenty of improvement in the locker. MONOPOLISTIC (7) settled near the tail of a big field then came with a mighty finish to defeat older horses over 1 5/16m at Gosford (metro) recently. Big step up today but trust Waller's judgment. ONE STEP CLOSER (2) is dour and will love a 22f slog through rain-affected ground.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Recent form sound. At the latest run won by 1.2 len at Doomben G3 Rough Habit May 16 over 1 ¼m on a rain affected track defeating Beauty Swift carrying 126lbs at $26. The start before that 4th of 14 at this track in the G2 Qld Guineas on May 2 over 1m, on a wet track, 4.5 len behind Brave Monarch carrying 126lbs at $16. On the ascendancy and is certainly worth following up. 1st Pick 1 Kilman Jockey: Ryan Maloney Trainer: Chris Waller J: Ryan Maloney T: Chris Waller	158	-	-	-	11%	17/2
Analysis Recent form sound. At the latest run won by 1.2 len at Doomben G3 Rough Habit May 16 over 1 ¼m on a rain affected track defeating Beauty Swift carrying 126lbs at $26. The start before that 4th of 14 at this track in the G2 Qld Guineas on May 2 over 1m, on a wet track, 4.5 len behind Brave Monarch carrying 126lbs at $16. On the ascendancy and is certainly worth following up.
4	Racing well recently. At the latest run 3rd of 16 at Doomben in the G3 Rough Habit on May 16 over 1 ¼m, slow going 1.4 len behind Kilman carrying 126lbs at $3. Before that 2nd of 14 at Randwick in the G3 Packer Plt on April 18 over 1 ¼m, 0.9 len behind Matias carrying 125lbs at $7.50. Not far away of late. Continues to perform well and is one of the contenders. 2nd Pick 4 Providence Jockey: James Mcdonald Trainer: Chris Waller J: James Mcdonald T: Chris Waller	192	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Racing well recently. At the latest run 3rd of 16 at Doomben in the G3 Rough Habit on May 16 over 1 ¼m, slow going 1.4 len behind Kilman carrying 126lbs at $3. Before that 2nd of 14 at Randwick in the G3 Packer Plt on April 18 over 1 ¼m, 0.9 len behind Matias carrying 125lbs at $7.50. Not far away of late. Continues to perform well and is one of the contenders.
12	Most recently raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 6th of 16 at Doomben in the G3 Rough Habit on May 16 over 1 ¼m, slow going 3 len behind Kilman carrying 126lbs at $3.30. Before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by 7 len at Pakenham Bm62 April 16 over 1 ¼m on a heavy track defeating Diamond Gust with 133lbs at $3.20. Untapped talent who can mix it with these. 3rd Pick 12 Accidental Bid Jockey: John Allen Trainer: Ciaron Maher J: John Allen T: Ciaron Maher	146	-	-	-	13%	7/1
Analysis Most recently raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 6th of 16 at Doomben in the G3 Rough Habit on May 16 over 1 ¼m, slow going 3 len behind Kilman carrying 126lbs at $3.30. Before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by 7 len at Pakenham Bm62 April 16 over 1 ¼m on a heavy track defeating Diamond Gust with 133lbs at $3.20. Untapped talent who can mix it with these.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Exacta

A bet selecting the first and second horses in a race in the correct order. An exacta box refers to paying a little more to ensure they can finish in either order.

Overlay

A horse going off at higher odds than his recent efforts show that he deserves.

Sloppy

A wet racetrack condition, typically with a firm base and water settling on top.