AU - Canberra - Race 5

Thoroughbred

11 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

15.5K

VIEW

Verdict

INCHYRA (8) is the top pick with clear reasons to improve sharply third-up. Her latest run in a Class 2 at this track reads poorly on paper, finishing last and beaten seven and a half lengths, but she was held up at straightening and now comes back to 5f, where she ran well two back. Expecting a much better effort. THORSTEN (3) brings the upside after beating Capdiva at Newcastle in a Mdn and has missed the quinella only once from four starts. Down to country grade this time ticks some boxes and with his racing pattern, he can go back-to-back. LA STIAVA (10) had excuses when wide throughout in a BM66 at Wagga and her Queanbeyan Class 1 win two back gives her the right profile from barrier one. HELLUVA TEEN (5) has been honest in stronger BM65 and BM66 races, owns solid 5f figures and won't be far away. STAR EMPIRE (2) is in winning form and can't be discounted despite coming back to 5f.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
8	Can rebound sharply third-up after a better-than-it-looks Class 2 run at this track, where she was held up at straightening before finishing last over 6 ½f. Her first-up fourth at this venue was more encouraging, beaten two and a half lengths, and she now returns to 5f with a win at the trip. Back to this trip with Boudvillain booked, and a much better effort is on the cards. 1st Pick 8 Inchyra Jockey: Pierre Boudvillain Trainer: B Joseph & P & M Jones J: Pierre Boudvillain T: B Joseph & P & M Jones	122	-	-	-	8%
Analysis Can rebound sharply third-up after a better-than-it-looks Class 2 run at this track, where she was held up at straightening before finishing last over 6 ½f. Her first-up fourth at this venue was more encouraging, beaten two and a half lengths, and she now returns to 5f with a win at the trip. Back to this trip with Boudvillain booked, and a much better effort is on the cards.
3	Broke through in a Mdn at Newcastle last start, beating Capdiva by just under a length after tracking the speed and proving strongest late. His Kembla Grange third prior had merit after being hampered at the start, and he is now third-up with one win and one placing from four starts at around 5f. Lightly raced and with his upside, there's no reason why he can't repeat the dose. 2nd Pick 3 Thorsten Jockey: Molly Bourke Trainer: Matthew Smith J: Molly Bourke T: Matthew Smith	97	-	-	-	23%
Analysis Broke through in a Mdn at Newcastle last start, beating Capdiva by just under a length after tracking the speed and proving strongest late. His Kembla Grange third prior had merit after being hampered at the start, and he is now third-up with one win and one placing from four starts at around 5f. Lightly raced and with his upside, there's no reason why he can't repeat the dose.
10	Her Wagga BM66 failure can be forgiven to a point, as she raced wide throughout before finishing last behind Pietro Road. The start prior she was a well-supported favourite in a Class 1 at Queanbeyan and beat Media Coverage by a neck, showing the right competitive edge. Disappointed last start but her win prior was very good and a return to that level can see her back on winning terms. 3rd Pick 10 La Stiava Jockey: Alysha Collett Trainer: Norm Gardner J: Alysha Collett T: Norm Gardner	133	-	-	-	34%
Analysis Her Wagga BM66 failure can be forgiven to a point, as she raced wide throughout before finishing last behind Pietro Road. The start prior she was a well-supported favourite in a Class 1 at Queanbeyan and beat Media Coverage by a neck, showing the right competitive edge. Disappointed last start but her win prior was very good and a return to that level can see her back on winning terms.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Pari-Mutuel

A pool style wagering system, where all money input through betting is divided among those with winning tickets (save for various deductions by the track operators).

Scratch

A horse is a scratch when injury or other necessity causes it to be withdrawn from the race.

Minus Pool

A pari-mutuel pool – typically a show pool - where one horse is so heavily bet that after deductions there is not enough money left to cover the prescribed minimum on each bet.