AU - Beaumont (Newcastle) - Race 3

Thoroughbred

13 Runners

5.7f

Class 1

Turf

SOFT 5

19.0K

VIEW

Verdict

Very few hopes after the scratchings. STEEL KNIGHT (1) is clearly the one to beat after finding only Brutal Belle better in a BM65 at Canberra, beaten just under a length as favourite after travelling well behind the leaders. The rise to 5 ¾f is the one reservation given his record around this distance, but he is third-up, handles soft ground and now comes back from BM65 company into Class 1 grade. SEDUCTRA (3) was only beaten just over a length first-up at Kembla Grange. Good form around Why So Hard at Randwick at the end of last prep is an eye-opener, with that form franked at stakes level on Saturday. Strips fitter and is the obvious danger despite carrying 60kgs. KERMITISAPET (8) has been safely held in two runs this prep, both over 5f. On a seven-day back-up and will appreciate getting over a bit more ground at this stage of the campaign. BLUE SUEDE HOOVES (6) has disappointed in three runs this prep. Top four contender in a thin race. Hard to make a case for the rest.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Went very close in a BM65 at Canberra last start, sitting behind the leaders and being pipped late by Brutal Belle when beaten just under a length as favourite. The start prior in a BM72 at Newcastle was only fair, but he covered ground there and this is easier by race grade despite being a harder meeting than country company. The 5 ¾f record is the query, but he is the one to beat. 1st Pick 1 Steel Knight Jockey: Aaron Bullock Trainer: Annabel & Rob Archibald J: Aaron Bullock T: Annabel & Rob Archibald	205	-	-	-	40%	6/4
Analysis Went very close in a BM65 at Canberra last start, sitting behind the leaders and being pipped late by Brutal Belle when beaten just under a length as favourite. The start prior in a BM72 at Newcastle was only fair, but he covered ground there and this is easier by race grade despite being a harder meeting than country company. The 5 ¾f record is the query, but he is the one to beat.
4	Kept her form in good order when third in a FM BM64 at Hawkesbury, beaten two lengths after striking early trouble and racing keenly through the middle stages. That followed a determined Mdn win at Newcastle, where she covered ground and still beat Monte Shell. Cherry ripe and looms as a major danger. 2nd Pick 4 Excelluna Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Richard & Will Freedman J: Non Runner T: Richard & Will Freedman	128	-	-	-	1%	Scratched
Analysis Kept her form in good order when third in a FM BM64 at Hawkesbury, beaten two lengths after striking early trouble and racing keenly through the middle stages. That followed a determined Mdn win at Newcastle, where she covered ground and still beat Monte Shell. Cherry ripe and looms as a major danger.
2	Returns from a five-month break after a plain finish to last campaign, ending with a second-last at Newcastle when he settled rearward and could not make ground. His previous CG BM64 run on heavy ground was weaker again, so race-day improvement is required. Didn't come up last prep but is good enough on his day. 3rd Pick 2 Captivating Tycoon Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Richard & Will Freedman J: Non Runner T: Richard & Will Freedman	122	-	-	-	1%	Scratched
Analysis Returns from a five-month break after a plain finish to last campaign, ending with a second-last at Newcastle when he settled rearward and could not make ground. His previous CG BM64 run on heavy ground was weaker again, so race-day improvement is required. Didn't come up last prep but is good enough on his day.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Sloppy

A wet racetrack condition, typically with a firm base and water settling on top.

Dead Heat

Two or more horses finishing so close at the wire, that they were unable to be separated on a photo finish and deemed to have tied.

Overlay

A horse going off at higher odds than his recent efforts show that he deserves.