Home Run Props: 3 Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Wild Card Tuesday (Sept. 29)

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Ronald Acuna Jr. (+470)
• Roman Anthony (+630)
• Michael Busch (+680)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Tuesday

Home Run Prediction: Ronald Acuna Jr. (+470)

Phillies at Braves, 2 p.m. ET

While Philadelphia Phillies‘ starter Jesus Luzardo can be filthy, I’m bullish on Ronald Acuna Jr. in Tuesday’s first game.

Luzardo will be making his first start since September 7. In his return off the IL on Sunday, Luzardo pitched one inning out of the bullpen, facing just three hitters but not recording a punchout. He’s expected to be used as an opener today, and it’s hard to imagine he’ll be operating at 100% given his sizable layoff.

Acuna finished the regular season with a .366 expected wOBA and raked at home, producing a .351 wOBA, 40.3% hard-hit rate and 43.0% fly-ball rate in the split. He ended the year on a heater, homering four times and racking up a .403 wOBA over his final 52 plate appearances.

Once Luzardo departs, which will likely be early in the game, Acuna will see a Phillies bullpen that gave up the 11th-most homers per nine this season (1.20).

Home Run Prediction: Roman Anthony (+630)

Red Sox at Yankees, 8 p.m. ET

Cam Schlittler is as good of a pitcher as there is in the AL. Despite that, Roman Anthony‘s long HR odds catch my eye.

Anthony missed a big chunk of the 2026 season due to injury and finished with only five bombs in 242 plate appearances. But down the stretch, he started to look like the real Roman Anthony, producing a .426 wOBA with a dinger over his past 32 plate appearances. He posted a .357 wOBA with the platoon advantage, and he’ll have the Yankee Stadium short porch working in his favor in Game 1.

There are very few soft spots in Schlittler’s profile, but he gives up much louder contact to lefties (35.6% hard-hit rate and 42.2% fly-ball rate) than righties (28.4% hard-hit rate and 33.7% fly-ball rate).

Home Run Prediction: Michael Busch (+680)

Cubs at Padres, 10 p.m. ET

Michael King took a step backward this year, and he draws a tough Game 1 assignment versus a strong Chicago Cubs offense.

King pitched to a 4.39 SIERA and 21.0% K rate in 2026. He struggled over his last three outings, as well, putting up a 4.56 expected ERA and 5.29 ERA in that span.

Similar to King, Michael Busch had a down year this season, registering just 20 homers a year after hitting 34. He’s at his best against RHPs, though, and of his 54 jacks the past two seasons, 43 of them have come with the platoon advantage.

After King exits, Busch will face a San Diego Padres bullpen that has permitted the fourth-worst xFIP over the last 14 days (4.71).

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.