Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Wednesday, September 9

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Rafael Devers (+430)
• Matt Olson (+340)
• Sal Stewart (+470)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Rafael Devers (+430)

Cardinals at Giants, 3:46 p.m. ET

I find Rafael Devers’ odds are much more enticing than the odds attached to several of the other biggest names on the slate today. He has 35 homers in 146 games en route to a .367 wOBA. Of his 35 bombs, 28 have come with the platoon advantage, and he’s on fire in the second half, boasting an eye-popping .416 wOBA since the break.

The matchup is against RHP Andre Pallante, who is 12-6 with a 3.51 ERA and 98 strikeouts this season. The Oracle Park environment isn't ideal for home runs, but at longish odds against a righty, Devers catches my eye today.

Home Run Prediction: Matt Olson (+340)

Rays at Braves, 7:16 p.m. ET

This is my favorite play of the day. Olson has 37 home runs in 145 games this season and has posted a career-best 48.0% fly-ball rate.

Olson gets Griffin Jax, who enters Wednesday with a 3.82 ERA and 101 strikeouts in 2026. Jax is hardly a pushover, but he’s a righty and these odds are attractive enough that I’m willing to take the matchup because Olson has been one of the more consistent power bats in baseball in 2026.

Home Run Prediction: Sal Stewart (+470)

Reds at Dodgers, 10:11 p.m. ET

Sal Stewart draws a tough matchup versus Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but I think that’s more than baked into the market, making these long odds appealing.

Stewart has 31 homers in 145 games, and despite playing his home games at Great American Ball Park, Stewart has more tanks on the road (17) than at home (14). He’s coming off a blistering August where he racked up a .375 wOBA and eight bombs in the month.

Yamamoto is one of the game’s best RHPs, but he’s allowed three home runs over his last two starts and is permitting 1.19 HRs per nine at home this season.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.