Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Wednesday, October 7

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Max Muncy (+410)
• Spencer Jones (+570)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Max Muncy (+410)

Dodgers at Braves, 6 p.m. ET

Tyler Mahle is getting the ball with the Atlanta Braves‘ season on the line, and I like the matchup for Max Muncy.

Mahle, a righty, posted just a 9.7% swinging-strike rate this year and gave up a 43.7% fly-ball rate to left-handed hitters.

Muncy is at his best with the platoon advantage, recording a 41.6% hard-hit rate and 42.3% fly-ball rate in the split. He’s homered twice already in this series, and even if Mahle doesn’t pitch for very long, Muncy could see RHP Didier Fuentes out of the Braves’ bullpen.

On a warm evening in Atlanta where the ball should carry well, Muncy to go yard is my favorite HR pick today.

Home Run Prediction: Spencer Jones (+570)

Rays at Yankees, 8 p.m. ET

Spencer Jones is another lefty power hitter who will have the platoon advantage as the Tampa Bay Rays are starting right-hander Nick Martinez.

Although Martinez produced a 3.10 ERA, his underlying numbers aren’t nearly as strong. He finished the regular season with a 4.63 SIERA and 15.1% K rate while giving up a 43.3% fly-ball rate. Lefties got to him for a 45.9% fly-ball rate. Yes, please.

Jones is having a rough postseason, striking out 43.8% of the time. But he’s got plenty of power, hitting 35 homers in the minors last year and then popping 25 jacks over Triple-A and the big leagues in 2026. He put up a 45.5% hard-hit rate and 47.9% fly-ball rate against RHPs this season, and he’ll have the short porch working in his favor tonight.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.