Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Saturday, September 5

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Ronald Acuna Jr. (+500)
• Esmerlyn Valdez (+440)
• Jac Caglianone (+340)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Ronald Acuna Jr. (+500)

Braves at Phillies, 6:06 p.m. ET

This is my favorite longer-shot option today. Acuña isn't having his best power season, but these long odds get my attention in homer-friendly Philadelphia.

Zack Wheeler gets the ball for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he’s got a 3.31 ERA and 154 strikeouts. He’s obviously not a pitcher we'd ordinarily go out of our way to attack. But Acuña has four career home runs against Wheeler over his career, and 10 of Acuña's 14 homers this season have come against right-handed pitching.

The combination of Acuña's ceiling, Citizens Bank Park and long odds puts me on this bet.

Home Run Prediction: Esmerlyn Valdez (+440)

Angels at Pirates, 6:41 p.m. ET

Valdez has 16 homers in 269 plate appearances, and nine of those have come in only 103 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. His underlying power backs it up, too: he owns a 19.8% barrel rate per batted-ball event and a 48.4% hard-hit rate.

Yusei Kikuchi is expected to the Los Angeles Angels' starter against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Kikuchi enters with a 5.65 ERA, and he has surrendered seven homers in nine starts this season, including six to right-handed hitters. He's also allowed two homers in each of his past two starts.

Home Run Prediction: Jac Caglianone (+340)

Blue Jays at Royals, 7:11 p.m. ET

Caglianone is another hitter whose underlying power makes him appealing. He's up to 23 home runs in 509 plate appearances, including 16 against righties. His 55.9% hard-hit rate is excellent, as are his 97.8-mph average exit velocity on flies and liners and 116.1-mph maximum exit velocity.

The matchup is the real selling point. Max Scherzer is scheduled to start for the Toronto Blue Jays and owns a 6.16 ERA. He's allowed 12 homers in 13 starts, while lefties have taken him deep seven times. His 54.8% fly-ball rate against left-handed batters is particularly attractive for a hitter with Caglianone's raw power.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.