Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Monday (Aug. 24)

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Munetaka Murakami (+265)
• Royce Lewis (+320)
• Michael Busch (+540)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Props, Best Bets Today

Home Run Prediction: Munetaka Murakami (+265)

Rangers at White Sox, 7:41 p.m. ET

Munetaka Murakami gets a home date against Kumar Rocker, and I think it puts him in a great spot to go yard.

Rocker is getting torched by lefty bats, surrendering a .369 wOBA and 1.52 jacks per nine in the split along with a 45.8% hard-hit rate and 42.6% fly-ball rate.

The scouting report on Murakami coming into the year was that he had huge power but a ton of swing and miss. That’s mostly been spot on as he’s striking out 33.5% of the time while launching 29 dingers through his first 415 plate appearances. Of his 29 long-balls, 23 have come against RHPs, and he’s mashed his way to a .399 wOBA, 44.8% hard-hit rate and 44.1% fly-ball rate in the split.

Murakami has three tanks over his last 45 plate appearances, and he’s my favorite home run bet for today.

Home Run Prediction: Royce Lewis (+320)

Twins at Athletics, 9:41 p.m. ET

The Minnesota Twins get a huge park-factor boost today in Sacramento, and they’re facing lefty Jeffrey Springs. That puts me on Royce Lewis.

Lewis has been pretty good since a midseason demotion to the minors, and he’s got solid numbers with the platoon advantage this season, putting up a .332 wOBA, 37.8% hard-hit rate and 48.6% fly-ball rate in the split. He’s hit 13 homers on the year, nine of which have come on the road.

Springs has struggled to a 4.96 SIERA and 17.7% K rate this year. Right-handed hitters have recorded 2.35 home runs per nine against him while Springs has permitted 2.62 HRs per nine overall at Sutter Health Park.

After Springs, Lewis will see an A’s bullpen that has let up the third-most homers per nine in 2026 (1.37).

Home Run Prediction: Michael Busch (+540)

Cubs at Diamondbacks, 9:41 p.m. ET

Merrill Kelly is getting the ball for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and that has me interested in the Chicago Cubs. Ultimately, I’m into these long odds on Michael Busch to go deep.

A year ago, Busch popped 34 long-balls, 30 of which came against righties. While his power numbers have taken a step back this campaign, Busch still has a 41.3% fly-ball rate versus LHPs. He’s also got five dongs in the second half.

Kelly is posting some ugly numbers this year, including a 5.27 SIERA and 14.9% strikeout rate. Lefty bats have a .387 wOBA and 2.15 homers per nine against him. He’s allowed 12 earned runs and three bombs over his last two starts, so this is a lovely matchup for Busch.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.