Home Run Props Today: Best Dinger Tuesday Home Run Predictions, Picks for Sept. 22

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Wyatt Langford (+420)
• Nolan Arenado (+400)
• Mike Trout (+340)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Wyatt Langford (+420)

Mets at Rangers, 8:06 p.m. ET

Despite playing his home games at a pitcher-friendly park, Wyatt Langford has been a much better hitter at home. Today, he’s at home versus a left-hander, and he’s my favorite HR bet of the day.

At home this year, Langford owns a 38.6% hard-hit rate and 51.4% fly-ball rate — compared to a 25.8% hard-hit rate and 43.0% fly-ball rate on the road.

He’s swinging it well of late, posting a .414 expected wOBA and two long-balls over his last 51 plate appearances.

The southpaw he’ll face tonight is Sean Manaea. Against right-handed hitters, the veteran Manaea has surrendered 1.72 homers per nine, a 45.9% fly-ball rate and a .366 wOBA.

Once Manaea leaves the game, Langford will take his hacks against a New York Mets bullpen that has given up the 10th-most homers per nine over the past 30 days.

Home Run Prediction: Nolan Arenado (+400)

Diamondbacks at Rockies, 8:41 p.m. ET

Nolan Arenado returns to homer-happy Coors Field tonight and gets a friendly matchup with left-hander Kyle Freeland.

Freeland has shown improved swing-and-miss stuff this year, but he’s still got a 4.26 SIERA. Righties have rocked him to the tune of a .401 wOBA and 2.36 jacks per nine.

Enter Arenado, who is having a resurgent campaign with 27 tanks and a 45.5% fly-ball rate. He’s popped 10 homers in just 152 plate appearances versus LHPs, amassing a .373 wOBA in the split. He’s also scorching hot at the moment, going deep five times over his previous 39 plate appearances.

On fire and boasting the platoon advantage at a great park for offense, Arenado stands out as a solid HR pick tonight.

Home Run Prediction: Mike Trout (+340)

Angels at Athletics, 9:41 p.m. ET

Mike Trout gets a big park-factor boost tonight at Sutter Health Park, and he’s on my HR radar.

The A’s are starting Brady Basso, a lefty. Basso has pitched only 40.0 MLB innings this campaign, and he’s not missing bats, recording a lowly 15.7% strikeout rate. He’s allowed a .363 wOBA and 38.9% hard-hit rate to right-handed hitters.

Basso has not pitched more than four innings in a game at the MLB level this year, so the A’s will have to turn to their bullpen for a big chunk of tonight’s game. That’s good for Trout as the Athletics bullpen has the fifth-worst xFIP in the second half.

Trout has a .378 expected wOBA this season, and he’s been much more productive on the road (.395 wOBA) than at home (.312 wOBA). Sutter Health Park has actually been the best venue for dingers this season, so Trout checks a lot of boxes.

It’s Dinger Tuesday!

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Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.